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रविवार, 20 मार्च 2022

THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH, 17, 2022

 

THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH, 17, 2022

 

Essentially flawed

Karnataka HC ruling on hijab fails to recognize the need for reasonable accommodation

The Karnataka High Court verdict upholding the ban on the wearing of headscarves by students in educational institutions is wrong on many levels. The manner in which it framed the questions arising from the controversy over Muslim girl students wearing the hijab undermines constitutional principles. The court failed to examine whether the wearing of the hijab, in addition to the prescribed uniform, but without any variation in colour, was a ground to refuse entry into a school or college. The Bench examined verses from the Koran to disagree with the students’ claim that wearing the hijab was an essential practice in Islam and that, therefore, it was entitled to constitutional protection as part of religious freedom under Article 25. But is that the real issue? The court rejected the argument in favour of ‘reasonable accommodation’, by which a pluralist society may allow the classroom to reflect social diversity without undermining the sense of equality among students. Apparel norms may be needed in “qualified public spaces” such as schools. But there is no reason to not accommodate the choice of an additional piece of clothing that does not interfere with the prescribed uniform.

    In rejecting the argument based on ‘freedom of conscience’, the court cited the absence of elaboration in the pleadings. The judgment’s emphasis on the uniform as an inviolable symbol of equality and homogeneity seems to have overwhelmed any contention in favour of any sort of accommodation. Another question to raise is whether it was at all necessary to invoke the ‘essential practice’ test in this case. If something is egregiously religious, it is more likely to be kept out of the campus, if uniformity and eliminating any ‘sense of separateness’ are the hallowed goals. The matter could have been disposed of without entering the theological domain. The ‘essential religious practice’ test itself is a pointless exercise, as the Supreme Court has established a nearly unattainable standard to determine it. Something is an essential practice only if its absence or removal has the effect of destroying the religion itself. Save for a few fundamentals, no religious practice will actually survive such scrutiny. It would be far better if a claim for Article 25 protection is tested against constitutional values such as equality, dignity and privacy, subject, of course, to health and public order. In any case, the ‘essentiality’ test should be jettisoned forever if only because it theoretically allows some defining theological concepts to override all else. What is abhorrent to constitutional principles will remain so irrespective of what is considered essential to a religion. Freedom of religion is important because freedoms are important, and not because religions are important.

 

 

A new social core

A clear base of ideologically affiliated voters helped the BJP thwart anti-incumbency effects

 As the dust settles after the State Assembly elections, in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, it is unmistakable that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has a firm sway now over politics in the country. A CSDS-Lokniti Survey in four States (not held in Manipur) shows a clear picture. Even when the net satisfaction levels of BJP-led State governments were either low (U.P., Uttarakhand) or negative (meaning more respondents were dissatisfied than satisfied, as in Goa), the party managed to win the elections handily. There are clear reasons. The BJP significantly consolidated sections of the electorate to build a formidable and durable coalition of base voters. Data from the Loknity survey show that across four States, while the Opposition parties garnered votes largely among the religious minorities, a substantial section among Dalits, and a fraction among the Other Backward Classes, the BJP’s votes were across the upper castes, politically non-dominant OBCs and a growing section of Dalits This solidification of the BJP’s voter base, in the Hindi heartland in particular, is in line with what political scientists call the new dominant party system akin to the “Congress system” of the 1950s and 1960s, albeit with a social core bound by a different binding factor – Hindutva. This social core has ensured that the dissatisfaction with the BJP governments did not translate directly into votes against the regimes and is expressed in how voters identified themselves with the party and its leadership, represented in the Union government.

   The net satisfaction levels with the Union government were higher by 17 points in U.P., 46 points in Uttarakhand, 18 in Goa, and eight in Punjab, where the mood was against both the Union and the State regimes. The battered economy, the public health crisis during the pandemic, the rising spectre of joblessness, the farm laws and other agrarian concerns specifically in rural areas, did weigh on voters’ minds. While welfare measures such as cash transfers to farmers and the ration scheme helped sway some of the poorest in support of the regimes, the solidified support for the BJP among the sections mentioned above reinforces the idea of an expanded base that has an ideological affinity towards the party. There were regional factors as well – the presence of a substantial vote-gathering party in an otherwise declining BSP in U.P., the rise of an alternative in AAP in Punjab, and the emasculation of the Congress. For the Opposition, the takeaways are stark. It is necessary for them to take on the BJP by constructing a clear message which declares that development and economic progress are best possible through social justice and amity among communities. But electoral success is not sufficiently guaranteed unless the message is delivered through a dedicated organization that can at least contest the formidable apparatus of the Sangh.

Treating values of individual freedom as trifles

The hijab judgment has struck a blow against each of these principles – liberty, equality, and fraternity

SUHRITH PARTHASARATHY

Our social contract is built on an edifice that grants preeminence to individual choice. The Constitution’s Preamble recognizes this when it places an onus on the state to secure to all citizens, among other things, liberty, equality and fraternity. The last of those values is fortified by a further commitment. The state, the Preamble says, with guarantee “fraternity assuring the dignity of the individual and the unity and integrity of the Nation”.

    The chief architect of the Constitution, B.R. Ambedkar, saw the standards contained in these words as forming a triumvirate of values. Liberty, equality, and fraternity, he said, were principles of life, “a union of trinity”. Divorce one from the other and the very purpose of democracy will be defeated. The Constituent Assembly believed that it was only deep commitments to these principles that can help usher in a social revolution in the country. The structures of India’s democracy – the various minutiae of administration that the Constitution spells out – were each built on the idea that securing individual happiness required the state to foreground these standards.

Enforcing popular morality

In that picture, independent courts, the framers thought, would stand as a guardrail against any effort to undermine social democracy. But far from acting as “sentinels on the qui vive” – as a former Chief Justice of India once described the Supreme Court of India’s role – the judiciary has time and again enforced the popular morality of the day, treating values of individual freedom as dispensable trifles. Tuesday’s judgment by the Karnataka High Court, in Resham vs State of Karnataka, is the newest addition to this litany. It upholds a ban imposed on the use of hijabs by students in classrooms across the State (Karnataka), and, in doing so, strikes a blow against each of the principles contained in B.R. Ambedkar’s union of trinity.

Court’s use of precedent

The judgment is premised on three broad conclusions. First, the court holds that the wearing of a hijab is not essential to the practice of Islam, and, therefore, the petitioners’ right to freedom of religion is not impinged; second, it finds that there is no substantive right to free expression and privacy that can be claimed within the confines of a classroom; and, third, according to it, since the Government’s order does not by itself ban the use of a hijab and since it is otherwise neutral, there is no discrimination aimed at Muslim women students.

    These conclusions suffer from one flaw or another. In rejecting the plea that the wearing of a hijab is a legitimate exercise of religious freedom, the court refers to a plethora of precedent that points to only “essential religious practices” enjoying constitutional protection. According to the court, the petitioners failed to produce any evidence to show that the use of a hijab was essential to Islam. Yet, despite this, it proceeds to perform a theological study – which one would think it is ill-equipped to do, especially without conducting a full-fledged trial – and concludes that Islam does not make the wearing of a hijab mandatory.

    This is an extraordinary finding for a secular court to make. No doubt, similar leaps of judgment have been made by the judiciary in the past – for example, in 2004, the Supreme Court concluded that the performance of the Tandava dance was not indispensable to the Ananda Margis faith, even though the followers of that religion believed it to be so. But if the Karnataka High Court’s inference is partly based on flawed doctrine, it must take the blame for posing to itself the question of whether at all a hijab was essential to religion.

Free choice and State action

Unlike many of the cases in which the doctrine of essential practice is invoked, this was not a case where individual freedom was at odds with group rights. On the contrary, this was a case where exercise of free choice was curtailed by state action. The petitioners had contended that they wore the hijab as a matter of conscience. Article 25 of the Constitution guarantees to all persons not only an equal right to profess, practice and propagate religion but also a “freedom of conscience.” Counsel pointed to the Supreme Court’s judgment in Bijoe Emmanuel (1986), where the rights of Jehovah’s Witnesses who refused to partake in the singing of the national anthem was protected. There, the Court ruled that so long as students conscientiously believed that they must not participate in the recital, their rights could be abridged only in the interests of public order, morality or health.

    In Resham, the Karnataka High Court draws a facile distinction from Bijoe Emmanuel. The judgment holds that there is no evidence in this case that the petitioners conscientiously believed in the necessity of the hijab – this is anomalous give that once a pleading is made on affidavit, the onus ought to have been on the state to establish that the petitioners were not, in fact, wearing the hijab out of a sense of conscience.

    The court then proceeds to make an even more astonishing assertion: all cases where a right of conscience is pleaded, according to it, are ipso facto cases of religious freedom, and, therefore, ought to be subject to the test of essentiality. This conclusion ignores the fact that Bijoe Emmanuel was explicitly decided based on conscience and that conscience need have no direct relation to religious faith. It is possible, for example that the hijab might not be essential to Islam, and yet that Muslim women choose to wear it as an exercise of their own individual beliefs.

On the classroom space

That the court was simply unprepared to grapple with this difference is even more evident in its rejection of claims based on free expression. The petitioners argued that in choosing to wear the hijab, they were merely exercising a form of identity relatable to their rights to freedom of speech and privacy. The court counters this by holding that classrooms are “qualified public spaces”, where individual rights cannot be asserted to “the detriment” of “general discipline and decorum”. In spaces such as these – and the court draws a remarkable analogy with prisons – substantive rights, the judgment holds, metamorphose into derivative rights. It is unclear what the ruling means by all this, except that these apparently derivative rights are incapable of being invoked in protected environments.

   In all of this, the court ignores the classic test for determining when and how the right to free expression can be legitimately limited: that is, the test of proportionality. There is, according to the judgment, no need to dwell on legal doctrine, because “the petitions we are treating do not involve the right to freedom of speech & expression or right to privacy, to such an extent as to warrant the employment of these tests for evaluation of argued restrictions, in the form of schools dress code”. In this manner, the court also brushes aside requests for “reasonable accommodation”.

Many accommodations

Kendriya Vidyalayas, for example, as the petitioners claimed, allow for hijabs within the contours of the prescribed uniforms. But the judgment holds that to make such an accommodation would defeat the very purpose of uniforms. This finding fails to recognize that even within the existing dress code, many accommodations are, in fact, made. For instance, religious and cultural marks on the forehead and accessories on other parts of the body are not disallowed. If the purpose of the uniform is to allow for no differences, surely every exhibition of faith in the classroom must be stamped out. Therefore, we can only see the failure to provide for a reasonable accommodation for the hijab as deliberate discrimination wrought on Muslim women.

     The judgment makes repeated references to constitutional secularism. But secularism, properly understood, demands precisely what the petitioners here were pleading for: the rights to agency, choice, and equal treatment, and, more than anything else, a guarantee of fraternity undergirded, as the Preamble says, with dignity to every individual.

                                                                  

 

Clean energy must use the battery of a circular economy

An efficient waste management ecosystem is crucial to manage the huge waste generated in India’s new energy push

AKANKSHA TYAGI

In the Budget speech this year, the Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, emphasized the role of cleaner technologies such as solar energy and batteries in India’s future economic growth. In addition, she mentioned the importance of transitioning to a circular economy from the existing linear one.

Market estimates

The call for a creation of a circular economy is significant since an efficient wast management ecosystem would be necessary to manage the enormous waste generated by renewable energy projects in the coming decades. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) – an intergovernmental organization that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future – the cumulative waste generated by India’s total installed solar capacity could be as high as 325 kilotonnes by 2030. A consulting firm, JMK Research and Analytics, estimates that the market for battery recycling will be around 23 Gigawatt hours (GWh) by 2030. The prevalence of a circular economy could also partially insulate these industries from potential supply chain shocks triggered by extraneous developments.

    A study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) has estimated that India would need over 5,630 GW of solar and 1,792 GW of wind energy to achieve its net-zero targets in the year 2070. A robust renewable waste management and recycling ecosystem could help people and India reduce environmental harm, provide energy security, and also create new jobs. So, here are six steps to nurture a circular economy in the Indian renewable energy industry.

A clear framework

First, policymakers should revise existing electronic waste management rules to bring various clean energy components under their ambit. These rules are based on extended producer responsibility that identifies component producers as responsible entities to manage their waste products. The Indian renewable energy industry has a complex structure that comprises various manufacturers, assemblers, importers and distributors. Hence, the revised regulations should clearly define the responsibilities of various stakeholders involved in the renewable energy value chain and provide annual targets for the collection and the recycling of waste.

    Second, dumping and burning of different components should be banned. Currently, in the absence of any regulation, land filling is the cheapest and most common practice to manage renewable energy waste. However, it is not environmentally sustainable All clean energy technologies thrive on metals and non-metals with different levels of toxicity. If the waste equipment is dumped in the open, then these elements could leach into the environment and enter the food chain. Studies show that the leaching of heavy metals such as lead and cadmium from solar photovoltaic modules could increase by 90% and 40%, respectively, under acidic conditions. Further, burning the polymeric encapsulant layer in solar photovoltaic modules releases toxic gases such as Sulphur dioxide and some volatile organic compounds.

R&D is essential

Third, the renewable energy industry should invest in the research and development of recycling technologies. Recycling is a multistep process that includes dismantling, disassembly, and extraction. Dismantling is largely a manual process that is sometimes automated. Disassembly can be done mechanically, thermally or chemically. Besides these traditional methods, investments in research and development could help discover new ways of recycling that result in higher efficiency and a less environmentally damaging footprint. Industries should also explore technology transfers with global recycling firms for establishing domestic waste recycling facilities. For instance, efficient metal recovery from waste provides a resilient supply of raw material for the renewable energy manufacturing industry.

Focus on finance, quality                                                                                                                               

Fourth, there has to be a creation of innovative financing routes for waste management. Access to finance is a major roadblock for players in the recycling ecosystem. The central government should nudge public and private sector banks to charge lower interest rates on loans disbursed for setting up renewable energy waste recycling facilities and issuing performance-based green certificates to recyclers that could be traded to raise money for waste management would also help ease the financial burden. A market for recycled materials could also be created through mandatory procurement by the renewable energy and other relevant manufacturing industries.

    Fifth, there needs to be an improvement in product design and quality. Renewable energy component manufacturers should find substitutes for toxic metals such as cadmium and leads used in their products and simplify product designs to reduce recycling steps. Such improvements in process efficiencies could go a long way in curbing waste creation at the source and its subsequent impact on the environment.

    Six, the Union and State governments should set stringent quality control standards for components used in their tenders. This will prevent premature end-of-life of components, and consequent waste creation. Substandard components generate considerable waste due to early life damage that is often irreplaceable, and the components often have to be discarded. Such quality enforcement could also position India’s renewable energy industry as a global supplier of quality products.

Largely in the informal sector

The renewable energy recycling ecosystem has a complex structure where there are multiple actors involved, but it would be an integral part of our journey toward a sustainable future. Beyond sustainability, it would also offer quality employment opportunities for the future generations as new jobs would be created across the entire value chain of waste management and recycling. Further, workers in the informal sector could access various socio-economic benefits and look forward to an improved quality of life. We ought to remember that the majority of India’s recycling sector is informal and workers have to work in unsafe environments without standardized wages. Therefore, developing an efficient renewable energy waste management and circular ecosystem is imperative rather than a choice. We can ignore this, but only at our own peril.

                                                  

शनिवार, 19 मार्च 2022

THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH, 16, 2022

 

THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH 16, 2022

 

Growing price pressures

Policy makers need to tame inflation o risk it undermining the growth they seek to support

Inflation in India continues on a worrying uptrend with the consumer price index-based reading accelerating to an eight-month high of 6.07% last month, while wholesale prices logged a double-digit increase for the eleventh straight month. February’s headline WPI inflation spurted to 13.11%. Retail inflation remained stuck above the RBI’s upper tolerance threshold of 6% for the second month, as food price inflation quickened to 5.85%. Households in the hinterland bore a bigger brunt of the burden as price gains measured by the consumer food price index for rural areas surged by 69 basis points from January’s level, to 5.87%. Price gains in the key protein source of meat and fish jumped by almost 200 basis points from the preceding month to 7.45%, while nutrient-rich vegetables also logged inflation of 6.13% in February, belying the central bank’s prognostication last month of an “expected easing of vegetable prices on fresh winter crop arrivals”. And even though inflation in oils and fats eased by more than 220 basis points to 16.44%, there is little room for cheer, given that one can expect a spike again this month in the wake of the abrupt disruption in the supply of edible oils from war-torn Ukraine, which is the largest source of sunflower oil imported into India. With price gains in clothing and footwear, fuel and light and transport and communication all running well above 8% levels, the overall trend in retail inflation is now clearly broad-based across consumption categories and disconcertingly way above tolerance levels.

Also, with the pump prices of fuels yet to reflect the recent upsurge in international oil prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of its south-western neighbor, transport and communication inflation is certain to climb sharply once state-run refiners reset prices to reflect crude costs. The price of India’s crude basket had already risen by over $20 a barrel since December to $94.07 last month and with global crude prices currently in uncharted territory on account of the war, and the rupee having weakened by about 2.5% against the dollar since the start of the conflict, it is hard to see any near-term relief on the fuel price front. A glance at last month’s producer prices of the energy basket shows inflation in the fuel and power category of the wholesale price index was at 31.5%. And in a sign that manufacturers are no longer able to keep absorbing cost pressures, inflation in manufactured products accelerated to 9.84% presaging more pain for consumers. RBI Deputy Governor Michael D. patra had last week cited the headroom available for the Government to cut taxes on the fuels as a source of comfort on the inflation front. With the RBI’s latest consumer confidence survey showing most households reporting further increases in overall spending on essentials and remaining far from sanguine on the prices outlook, policymakers need to act expeditiously to tame inflation or risk it undermining the very growth they are currently focused on supporting.

 

White sheen

India can breathe easy on moving to fourth place in the ICC Test Championship table

India’s staggering dominance in cricketing jousts at home was further reiterated at the conclusion of the Test series against Sri Lanka. If the earlier T20Is were swept 3-0, the longer format proved no different as the host won at 2-0 with the triumphs in both Tests being registered in three days each. These emphatic victories emphasised the vast gulf in quality between the rivals split by the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. India last failed in a home Test series during 2012 when Alastair Cook’s England prevailed at 2-1. Subsequently for nearly a decade, India proved to be a tough opponent in its backyard, maximising home advantage and thriving on an array of diverse stars that could bat, spin and bowl reverse-swing on dry pitches under a harsh sun. That template was evident through the last fortnight. The positive results may hint at a smooth leadership transition from Virat Kohli to Rohit Sharma but prior to the series, the incumbent had his share of headaches. The middle order was recast with cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane making way for Hanuma Vihari and Shreyas lyer while an injured opener K.L. Rahul was ruled out. The batting needed reassurance while the losses in South Africa continued to haunt. Those worries were gradually erased as despite Rohit and Kohli’s lukewarm yield, Vihari and Shreyas revealed their mettle.

Shreyas was brilliant at Bangalore’s M. Chinnaswamy Stadium, leaving his imprint on an abrasive surface. The pitch may not have been a minefield like the one on which Sunil Gavaskar scored a masterly 96 in his last Test innings during the game against Pakistan in 1987, and yet it was a strip that never allowed batters to settle. The 92 and 67 from Shreyas were straight from the top-drawer while Ravindra Jadeja’s star turn in the first Test at Mohali, as reflected in his unbeaten 175 and match haul of nine wickets, kick-started India’s campaign. The cameos by Rishabh Pant and the wickets from Jasprit Bumrah and R. Ashwin together deflated Sri Lanka even if its skipper Demuth Karunaratne struck a ton at Bangalore. Importantly, India gained valuable points and moved to the fourth place in the ICC Test Championship table for the 2021-23 cycles. Having lost in the final to New Zealand during the previous edition, Rohit is fully aware of the challenges even if India can breathe easy this year, especially with a major chunk of its Tests being at home before its tour of Bangladesh. There is also a lone Test to tackle in England, a remnant of last year’s tour. While the players will soon blend into the imminent Indian Premier League, their Test whites seem to have gained a fresh sheen.

 

A misfiring and its trail of poor strategic stability

India’s missile incident has underlined the sorry state of bilateral mechanisms it has with Pakistan for crisis management

HAPPYMON JACOB

The accidental firing of an Indian missile into Pakistan on March 9 calls for serious introspection by the two nuclear-armed adversaries about the perils of living under the shadow of nuclear weapons. The unfortunate incident also casts a shadow of nuclear weapons. The unfortunate incident also casts a shadow on the standards of the storage, maintenance, the handling and even the engineering of high-technology weapon systems in India. But, more pertinently, the incident highlights the sorry state of bilateral mechanisms for crisis management between the two nuclear adversaries where there is a missile flight time of barely a few minutes.

Mature responses

The Pakistani response to the accidental firing of the missile was a balanced one especially when handled by the Pakistan Army on March 11. While New Delhi maintained a silence over the issue until it was brought up on March 11, the Indian response was also far from denial. Pakistan did not allege that it was done intentionally by India, and the India side owned up the mistake and ordered an inquiry.

    In that sense then, the Indian and Pakistani responses to the missile (mis) firing were the best possible out come under the circumstances given that there is little bilateral mechanism for crisis management. The two sides do not have high commissioners on the other side, there is no structured bilateral dialogue, and, most importantly, the two sides have not held ‘Expert Level Talks on Nuclear Confidence Building Measures’ or ‘Expert Level Talks on Conventional Confidence Building Measures’ for several years now.

    The missile incident had all the makings of a crisis that could have escalated quickly, but, fortunately, good sense prevailed on both sides. Perhaps India was also very lucky. There are a number of imponderables that could have steered the incident in a different direction. What if this had happened during trouble between the two sides such as the Balakot crisis of 2019? What if this missile had hit a target of strategic value inside Pakistan to retaliate which may or may not have led to an Indian response? What if such a Pakistani response had come when the Utter Pradesh Assembly elections were still going on? One could think of a number of scenarios wherein the accidental firing could have spiraled into a major crisis between India and Pakistan.

    This is not to say that accidents do not take place. As a matter of fact they do. There have been several ‘broken arrows’ (“accident that involves nuclear weapons or nuclear weapons components, but does not create the risk of nuclear war”), acknowledged and otherwise, that took place during the Cold War, even though those accidents did not involve the two rivals. To be fair, the accident on March 9 did not involve a nuclear tipped missile or a nuclear war-head – there is speculation though that the missile in question is the BrahMos, a nuclear capable missile. More so, the nuclear deterrence operating in the India-Pakistan context is a relaxed one, unlike the one we had between the superpowers during the Cold War when the two rivals often kept their nuclear forces on hair-trigger alert.

    In the subcontinent, neither side keeps its nuclear forces on high alert. As far as India is concerned, its warheads are de-mated from the delivery vehicles, and its nuclear forces – under the command of the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), the tri-service functional command of the Indian armed forces – are de-alerted. India does not have tactical nuclear weapons. Nor has there been any consideration of pre-delegating nuclear launch authority to local commanders, even during a crisis. Pakistan’s story is somewhat different, though not radically so. While its nuclear forces are not on high alert, there is no certainty that its warheads are de-mated from their launch vehicles. Perhaps, more importantly, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal boasts of tactical nuclear weapons, and one often comes across reports from inside Pakistan of the country’s tactical nuclear weapons pre-delegated to forward commanders during crisis periods.

In  feeble form                               

What is deeply worrying, however, is the delicate state of strategic stability between India and Pakistan. There are at least four reasons why the strategic stability regime in South Asia is hardly prepared for dealing with accidents such as the one that just happened, or enhancing effective crisis management and deterrence stability. For one, although India and Pakistan signed a ‘Pre-Notification of Flight Testing of Ballistic Missiles’ agreement in October 2005, it does not include cruise missiles. Notably, the missile that was misfire by the India side earlier this month, suspected to be the BrahMos, was a cruise missile (even thought it was a misfire, and not a fight test). Given the many sophisticated cruise missiles that are now a part of each side’s arsenal, it is important to include them in the pre-notification regime.

    Second, as pointed out above, the two sides have not held their structured meetings on nuclear confidence building measures (CBMs) and conventional CBMs for several years now. Given the nature of the India-Pakistan relationship – adversarial, nuclear-armed, crisis prone, and suffering from trust deficit – there is an urgent need, especially in the wake of the recent incident, to revive these two dialogue mechanisms. After all, even the ideologically-adversarial Cold War rivals had such mechanisms in operation especially in the wake of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.

A perspective

Third, what makes the regional strategic stability regime more unstable is the fact that the third state with nuclear weapons in the region, China, has so far refused to engage in strategic stability discussions with India even though China today is involved in the India-Pakistan conflict more than ever before, apart from being in a military standoff with India. These three elements, and now with the possibility of accidental firing of missiles, make the region particularly weak from a strategic stability point of view.

   India and Pakistan urgently require faster mechanisms for communicating sensitive information during crisis periods and peacetime given how quickly the two sides are capable of transitioning from peacetime to a crisis. Therefore, India and Pakistan should consider setting up mechanisms such as nuclear risk reduction centres (NRRCs), established between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

    The primary objective of NRRCs, or similar structures that can be set up on either side, is risk reduction by providing a structured mechanism for timely communication of messages and proper implementation of already agreed upon confidence building measures. In a sense, such a mechanism could act like the ‘Permanent Indus Commission’ which has resolved several disputes arising out of the Indus Water Treaty.

    Some of the misperceptions and ambiguities in the strategic domain could be taken up by the risk reduction centres for resolution or clarification. Such a body could routinely exchange messages, provide timely clarifications, and review compliance to agreements among others. In an age of social media and 24-hour news, honest mistakes or unforeseen accidents could spiral into a military standoff especially in the absence of timely clarifications.

    Having said that, it is deeply concerning that the Indian Director General of Military Operations did not use the existing, and well-functioning, hotline to inform the Pakistani side of the missile misfiring. If indeed the hotline was not activated, it is a cause for concern for, after all, risk reduction mechanisms are useless if there is little political will to use them.

    New Delhi should, therefore, provide assurances to Pakistan that efforts will be made to avoid such mistakes in the future; Pakistan should desist from the silly temptation of linking the accident to “a state apparatus run by a fascist ideology”; and senior officials from the India and Pakistan should device ways of improving strategic stability between the two nuclear adversaries.

                                      

 

‘Bharat Natyam’ in Indian diplomacy

India’s stand in the United Nations on the Ukraine war is an apt moment to reflect on the much needed Dixit principle

RAKESH SOOD

The late Jyotindra Nath Dixit (Mani Dixit to his many friends and admirers) took over as Foreign Secretary on December 1, 1991. He retired 26 months later, on January 31, 1994 – 58 years was then the retirement age.

Republics and Moscow

Those were times of change. On December 25, 1991, Soviet Union’s General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev resigned, the flag of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was lowered for the last time at the Kremlin and the following day, the USSR was formally dissolved. In its place, 15 republics emerged. India accepted the challenge and set about opening new embassies to build new relationships with these countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Central Europe while maintaining its traditional ties with Moscow.

In January 1992, India and Israel established full diplomatic relations, announcing the opening of embassies and exchanging Ambassadors for and first time, opening the door to a relationship that has blossomed into one of India’s most significant strategic partnerships in the last three decades.

Path to the nuclear deal

On January 31, 1992, Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao participated in the first-ever meeting of the United Nations Security Council at the summit level (India was a member in 1991-92), presided by the British Prime Minister, John Major. On the sidelines, Mr. Rao had a bilateral meeting with the United States President, George H.W. Bush, where the two leaders decided that in the changing world, Indian and the U.S. needed to have frank exchanges on issues that had divided them during the Cold War; the issue identified was ‘nuclear proliferation and disarmament’; the first meeting took place during Mr. Dixit’s visit to Washington two months later, sowing the seeds of the dialogue that continued through ups and downs, leading to the path-breaking India-U.S. Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement in 2008.

    At the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on January 27, 1992, Prime Minister Rao’s ‘Look East’ policy began to take shape as India and ASEAN embarked on a secotoral-dialogue partnership. By the end of 1995, this had matured into a full-dialogue partnership and in 1996; India joined the security dialogue platform, the ASEAN Regional Forum. Since 2002, the relationship has strengthened further with the annual India-ASEAN summit.

On China and Taiwan

Following intense negotiations, during Mr. Rao’s visit to China in September 1993, the two sides initiated the first of many confidence-building-measures, notably the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas. It laid the foundation of the relationship for two decades.

Simultaneously, India and Taiwan negotiated to open economic and cultural centres; Taiwan opened its office first in Mumbai in 1992 before shifting to Delhi while India established the India-Taipei Association office in 1995.

    The instances above give an idea of how India was responding to the changes taking place around us and in the wider world. As a junior colleague who had the privilege of working closely with Mr. Dixit during these years, I often heard him engage patiently with foreign diplomats and respond to questions from inquisitive journalists seeking to make sense of the about-turns in Indian foreign policy.

    Relaxing as he puffed on his pipe, in a private aside to his friends, he would tell us, “In Indian diplomacy, sometimes, you need to do a bit of Bharat Natyam.” The point was simple – you may appear in different forms to others but after you have first secured your interests.

UN vote dynamics

In recent weeks, the debates and discussions in the Indian media and TV talk-shows about India’s stand on the Ukraine conflict and its votes in the UN Security Council and General Assembly are an appropriate moment to reflect on the Dixit principle.

    Evidently, the Indian government has chosen to ‘abstain’, based on an assessment of its core interests. However, there is a cardinal principle associated with Security Council votes on issues in such charged times. A ‘for’ or ‘against’ vote is intended to convey a blunt message of ‘support’ or ‘opposition’. It is a black or white choice, and once exercised, the messaging is clear.

   On the other hand, ‘abstention’ takes us into a grey zone because it is the middle path. It can either be seen as fence-sitting (which is a sign of helplessness) or create space for diplomatic manoeuvre (which is a successful outcome). In the Ukraine instance – the West should feel satisfied that India ‘abstained’ because it perhaps expected India to oppose the West’s draft proposals given New Delhi’s traditional ties with Russia while Russia should also feel satisfied at India’s ‘abstention’ because it perhaps expected New Delhi to give in to western persuasion.

    The second outcome is a positive one but to appear in different forms at the same time, we need to revive the kind of Bharatnatyam that Mr. Dixit used so effectively to navigate those turbulent times, even as he helped set the course for Indian foreign policy three decades ago.

 

 

THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH, 15, 2022

 

THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH 15, 2022

 

The failed troika

The Congress should not shy away from introspection of its leadership

   The Congress has precluded the possibility of any honest conversation at a proposed brainstorming on its plight by hailing the leadership of Sonia Gandhi beforehand. Ms. Gandhi and her two children, Rahul and Priyanka, control the party, but it would be illogical to attribute the collapse of the Congress party entirely to the Gandhi family. The meltdown of the Congress has been caused by a combination of several factors that evolved over decades. At the same time, the Gandhis cannot wash their hands of the debacle that they have led the Congress into. They failed to see the ground shifting under their feet and showed no imagination or willingness to work hard. Popular leaders were routinely sidelined and a cabal of court jesters was allowed to capture Rajya Sabha seats and control power. Mr. Gandhi who famously did not get along with the coterie that surrounded his mother, built a rootless, clueless one of his own, and made some disastrous choices such as appointing Navjot Singh Sidhu to lead the campaign in Punjab. In Uttarakhand, even in the face of a confused Bharatiya Janata Party, the Congress could not get its act together.

In some contexts, dynastic politics continue to flourish, but for the Congress, it has become a huge burden to carry. It is not that the party will miraculously revive if all three members of the Gandhi family move away from the party, as Ms. Gandhi suggested before the Congress Working Committee meeting on Sunday. What is clear is that the current arrangement that involves Ms. Gandhi as titular head, and her children functioning as two unaccountable power centres, has become untenable. Whether the Congress party has the capacity to hold itself together without the ritual of deifying the family remains an open question, but it can no longer shy away from making an alternative leadership that is more accountable and accessible. The Gandhis too must reflect upon their competence and utility for the Congress. The proposed brainstorming must focus on the existential crisis that stares at the party, and should not be used as yet another opportunity to find excuses to maintain the status quo. The party had appointed a committee to examine the causes of its performance in the 2021 Assembly polls in five States/Union Territory. The report was submitted, but rather than discuss it, the party chose to lock it away. The party must look for ideas and leaders from within its ranks to attempt a revival. It is an uphill task and anything short of a brutally honest introspection is doomed to fail at the outset.

 

A new deal

Any delay in Iran deal will deepen security crisis in West Asia and inflate global oil prices

    The Vienna talks aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, have hit a wall after Russia sought sanctions exemptions for its future trade and defence ties with Iran. European negotiators say “a good deal” is on the table. But Russia, which has been slapped with a barrage of sanctions by the United States and its allies over the Ukraine invasion, seeks written guarantees that those curbs would not “in any way harm” its ties with Iran. The nuclear deal, reached in 2015, started unraveling in 2018 as the Trump administration unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the agreement despite international certification that Iran was fully compliant with its terms. After the U.S.’s withdrawal, Iran started enriching uranium to a higher purity and installing advanced centrifuges at its nuclear plants. Now, nuclear experts believe Iran is just months away from having enough high purity uranium to make a nuclear bomb, though the Iranian leadership has repeatedly claimed that it has no plan to make one. Western officials say the growing nuclear capability of Iran demands urgent steps to conclude the deal and curb its nuclear programme. Removing sanctions on Iran and letting Iran’s oil enter the global market could also ease oil and gas prices, which shot up after the Russian attack on Ukraine.

The West’s push to conclude the deal gives Russia added leverage in the negotiations, at a time when relations between Moscow and western capitals are at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War. The U.S. and Europe and reportedly looking for alternatives to revive the deal without Russia. But it would not be easy. Russia, an original signatory of the JCPOA, is a member of the joint commission that supervises Iran’s compliance. Under the agreement, Russia is also required to take control of Iran’s excess enriched uranium and work with Tehran to turn its Fordow nuclear plant into a research facility. In theory, the deal can be revived if other signatories take up Russia’s responsibilities. But it is not clear whether Iran and China would be ready to go ahead without Russia. While the Iranians have publicly said they would not allow any “external factors” to impact their national interests, Tehran is unlikely to ignore the sensitivity of Russia, an ally, and reach an agreement with the U.S., whose exit scuttled the original deal. This leaves the future of the nuclear deal in Russian hands. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s response to it have already sent commodity prices soaring and shaken the global economy, which is yet to come out of the COVID-19 shock. A further delay or a total collapse of the Iran deal would not only deepen the security crisis in West Asia but also add pressure on global oil and gas prices. The signatories should not hold the Iran deal to ransom. They should continue to push for a collective agreement that could curb Ira’s nuclear programme and take the country into the global economic mainstream.

Fragmenting world order, untied nations

The impact of the Ukraine war on global interconnectedness is cause for worry in the post-World War order

SUHASINI HAIDAR

 Nearly three weeks into the Russian war on Ukraine, the cost to India is still to be counted. While some are focusing on how India’s refusal to criticize Russia’s actions, and the string of abstentions at the United Nations, would affect its relations with the West and its Quad partners (the United States, Australia and Japan), others are watching the economic costs that the unprecedented sanctions of the U.S. and the European Union will have on Indian trade, energy and defence purchases. However, the outcome that should worry New Delhi and other like-minded countries the most, apart from the devastating consequences for the Ukrainian nation, is the impact the Ukraine crisis is having on the global world order, which is fragmenting in every respect of global interconnectedness – in terms of international cooperation, security, military use, economic order, and even cultural ties.

The UN and Security Council

To begin with, the global order has broken down and events in Ukraine have exposed the United Nations and the Security Council for their complete ineffectiveness. Russia’s actions in Ukraine may, in terms of refusing to seek an international mandate, seem no different from the war by the United States in Iraq in 2003, Israel’s bombing of Lebanon in 2006 and the Saudi-coalition’s attacks of Yemen in 2015.

     But Ukraine is in fact a bigger blow to the post-World War order than any other. The direct missile strikes and bombing of Ukrainian cities every day, exacting both military and civilian casualties, and the creation of millions of refuges, run counter to every line of the UN Charter preamble, i.e. “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war…”, “to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbors”, as well as Articles 1 and 2 of the ‘Purposes and Principles’ of the United Nations (Chapter 1) (https://bit.ly/3w4BS5X).

     The fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin broadcast his decision to “launch military operations” on Ukraine at the same time the Russian envoy to the United Nations was presiding over a UN Security Council discussion on the Ukraine crisis, speaks volumes for the respect the P-5 member felt for the proceedings. A vote of the international commons. Or the UN General Assembly (UNGA), that decried Moscow’s actions, was brushed off in a way that was even easier than when the U.S. did when it lost the UNGA vote in 2017 over its decision to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.

     Meanwhile, in their responses, other P-5 members such as the United States, the United Kingdom and France did not seek to strengthen the global order either, imposing sanctions unilaterally rather than attempting to bring them to the UN. Clearly, Russia would have vetoed any punitive measures, but that should not have stopped the attempt. Nor are the surges in weapons transfer to Ukraine a vote of confidence in the UN’s power to effect a truce.

Whither nuclear safeguards

The next point is Russian recklessness with regard to nuclear safety in a country that has suffered the worst impacts of poor safety and planning following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster (when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union), which is a challenge to the global nuclear order. Russian military’s moves to target areas near Chernobyl and shell buildings near the Zaprizhzhia nuclear power plant (also Europe’s largest), show an alarming nonchalance towards safeguards in place over several decades, after the U.S.’s detonation of atomic bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 led to the establishment of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1956. The world must also consider the cost to the nuclear non-proliferation regime’s credibility: Ukraine and Libya that willingly gave up nuclear programmes have been invaded, while regimes such as Iran and North Korea can defy the global order because they have held on to their nuclear deterrents.

     There are also the covenants agreed upon during the global war on terrorism, which have been degraded, with the use of non-stats actors in the Ukraine crisis. For years, pro-Russia armed militia operated in the Donbas regions, challenging the writ of the government in Kyiv. With the arrival of Russian troops, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has invited all foreign fighters who are volunteering to support his forces to the country. This seeks to mirror the “International Brigades” in the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s, comprising foreign volunteers from about 50 countries against forces of Spanish military ruler Francisco Franco.

     However, the role of foreign fighters has taken on a more sinister meaning after 2001 and al Qaeda, when western recruits joined the Islamic State to fight Syrian President Assad’s forces. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’s recent statement that she would “absolutely support” British veterans and volunteers joining the Ukraine war against Russia has since been reversed by the British Foreign Office, and it is hoped that other countries around the world, including India, make firm efforts towards preventing such “non-state actors” from joining a foreign war.

Economic actions

Economic sanctions by the U.S., the U.K. and the European Union (EU) also point to a fragmentation of the global financial order. While analysts have pointed out that the sanctions announced so far do not include some of Russia’s biggest banks such as Sberbank and Gaz-prombank and energy agencies (in order to avoid the disruption of oil and gas from Russia), the intent to cut Russia out of all monetary and financial systems remains. From the eviction of Russia from SWIFT payments, to the cancellation of MasterCard, Visa, American Express and PayPal, to the sanctioning of specific Russian businesses and oligarchs and pressure on Western businesses (McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, etc.) operating in Russia to shut down, the arbitrary and unilateral nature of western sanctions rub against the international financial order set up under the World Trade Organization (that replaced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT).

    The obvious fallout of this “economic cancel culture” will, without doubt, be a reaction – a pushback from Russia and an exploration of alternative trading arrangements with countries such as China, India and much of the Eastern Hemisphere which continue to trade with Moscow. For the S-400 missile defence deal, for example, New Delhi used a rupee-rouble mechanism and banks that were immunized from the U.S.’s CAATSA sanctions (or Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) for advance payments. Russia banks will now use the Chinese “Union Pay” for online transactions. Gradually, the world may see a “non-dollar” system emerge which would run banking, fintech and credit systems separately from the “dollar world”.

Isolation by culture

Finally, there is the western objective, to “isolate” Russia, socially and culturally, that rails against the global liberal order. While several governments including the U.S., the U.K. and Germany have persistently said that their quarrel is not with Russian citizens but with their leadership, it is clear that most of their actions will hurt the average Russian citizen. The EU’s ban of all Russia-owned, Russia-controlled or Russian-registered planes from EU airspace, and Aeroflot’s cancellation of international routes, will ensure that travel to and from Russia is severely curtailed. Some of this isolation of its citizens will work to the favour of an increasingly authoritarian Kremlin. Mr. Putin’s response to the banning of Russian channels in Europe and its allies has been to use the western media ban as a pretext to ban opposition-friendly Russian channels as well. The “isolation” extends to art and music: in the past two weeks the Munich Philharmonic fired its chief conductor and New York’s Metropolitan Opera let a Russian soprano, Anna Netrebko, go because they would not criticize the war. The Bolshoi Ballet’s performances in London and Madrid were similarly cancelled.

    The perils of this comprehensive boycott of Russia are not without historical precedent. Speaking to his Parliament this week, Mr. Zelensky invoked British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s “Fight to the End” speech, delivered at the House of Commons in June 1940, to speak about Ukraine’s commitment to fight Russia. European onlookers would do well to also remember Churchill’s other famous speech, “The Sinews of  peace”, delivered in the United States in 1946, when he first referred to the “Iron curtain coming down” between Soviet Russia and Western Europe. “The safety of the world requires a new unity in Europe, from which no nation should be permanently outcast,” Churchill had warned, although his words went in vain and the world suffered the consequences of the Cold War for the next four decades.

New Delhi needs to ponder

    The events over the past two weeks, set in motion by Russia’s declaration of war on Ukraine, have no doubt reversed many of the ideas of 1945 and 1990, fragmenting the international order established with the UN, ushering in an era of de-globalization and bringing down another Iron Curtain. India’s abstentionist responses and its desire not to be critical of any of the actions taken by the big powers might keep Indians safe in the short term. But in the long term, it is only those nations that move proactively to uphold, strengthen and reinvent the global order that will make the world a safer place, even as this war that promises few winners rages on.

 

 

The war’s cold facts and what India needs to glean

As hard power dictates terms in geo-politics, India’s Atmanirbhar push needs to move to mission mode

MANMOHAN BAHADUR

“There is no finer teacher of war than war,” said Mao and as the Ukraine-Russia war nears the end of three weeks, it is time one takes stock of India’s position in the real world of geopolitics.

      In the real world, ‘power’ talks – as Greek historian Thucydides wrote in the Fifth Century BC, “Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power – while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” The dogged resistance of Ukraine notwithstanding, ‘power’ has spoken through Russian actions, with Russian President Vladimir Putin demanding that all Russian demands be met, including to call to surrender. This leads to two fundamental deductions at the macro-level.

Ukraine is alone

First, a nation’s vital interests can be protected only by that nation itself. For all the pompous statements coming from the West, promises of arms supply being made and intelligence inputs that must be getting transmitted, the fact is that it is the Ukrainians alone who are facing the brunt of the Russian military might. It has always been conjectured whether the United States would come to the aid of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally in Europe, following a Russian advance, and risk its own cities in turn. The answer is starkly visible. Good intentions and media statements have never stopped a bullet and surely, there would be soul searching that is ongoing in the minds of allies such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan too, as the fallacy of a ‘friend’ coming to fight with you and for you has been exposed, yet again.

The Indian parallel

India’s experience has been similar. During the 1962 India-China war, Moscow had no time for New Delhi (in fact, it sided with Beijing) and the Americans offered moral and logistic support, despite New Delhi’s request for military help. The 1965 war was one of redemption as India re-armed itself in a big way, a drive that continued and gave us the outright victory in 1971. Then, in 1974, it is to the credit of the Indian leadership for demonstrating India’s scientific capability through a ‘peaceful’ nuclear explosion and the leadership in 1998 for going overtly nuclear. To the common man, this constitutes power, but between two nuclear-capable nations, an atomic weapon is a deterrent in the nuclear realm and not a determinant of ‘conventional’ power. As India faces two nuclear adversaries, the reality of India having lagged in true indigenous conventional capability must be accepted. This leads to the second deduction.

    For a nation to have strategic autonomy in matters of national security, self-sufficiency in defence research and development and manufacturing is an inescapable imperative. This would afford the required deterrence to prevent war, and to prosecute it (war) if deterrence fails. The sessions at the United Nations on Ukraine, where India abstained, saw New Delhi as tightrope walker as it is heavily dependent on Russia and the U.S., for political reason as well as for arms.

Arms from the West too             

After the Cold War ended, India diversified its purchases to dilute its dependence on Russia for arms. While the narrative has been on the MiGs, Antonovs, Sukhois, S-400, T-90 tanks, Grad rocket launchers, Kilo-class submarines, et. Al, one overlooks the fact that India has become heavily dependent on the West too for a multitude of frontline armament systems. For example, the heavylift transport fleet of the India Air Force (IAF) relies heavily on the American C-17 and C-130J Super Hercules aircraft, while the helicopter fleet has the Chinook and Apache attack helicopters. Similarly, the Indian Navy has the Boeing P-81 long range aircraft for maritime surveillance and is acquiring MH-60 helicopters for anti-submarine warfare and Sea Guardian drones for reconnaissance. The Indian Army’s M777 artillery guns are from the West, the IAF’s Rafale and Mirage fighters from France, Jaguars from Britain and multitude of drones from Israel; even the basic infantry rifle is being imported. And, India has signed three ‘foundational’ agreements with the U.S.; the sword of Damocles, through the Countering America’s Adversaries Through sanctions Act (CAATSA) is ever present. The list is very long and encompasses both ‘camps,’ as it were. Are there any doubts now about why, besides political reasons, we abstained in the UN Security Council vote? So, what is the way out?

    The writing is on the wall. A nation’s standing in the pecking order based only on soft power is ephemeral. As the West twiddles its thumbs, ‘Ukraine’ proves that hard power dictates terms in geo-politics. Thucydides understood it in Fifth century BC and we are in for a rough time if we do not get it even now. The Atmanirbhar thrust of the Government in matters of defence research and development and manufacturing, though gathering pace, has to become a national endeavour in mission mode, bridging differences across the political aisle and providing a political continuum to underwrite it. There is no other way out.