THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH, 21, 2022

 

THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH, 21, 2022

Mounting pressure India must retain the ability to judge and shift its position on Ukraine as the war progresses It is certainly no coincidence that a string of foreign leaders, Ministers and officials are descending on New Delhi this month, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues for its fourth week, and without a clear end in sight. There are summits with the Prime Ministers of Japan and Australia (virtual), and one soon with the Israeli Prime Minister, and visits by the U.S. Under Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, as well as European Foreign Ministers and delegations. What the visits by NATO Quad allies of the U.S. all have in common is their planning at short notice, and putting discussions on India’s stand on Ukraine at the top of their talks. Even Japanese PM Fumio Kishida, who had a full bilateral agenda to discuss with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at their much-delayed annual summit meeting, arrived in Delhi on a very short visit, and made it clear that finding a common position on Ukraine and telling India that it must not “condone” Russia’s actions was a “priority”. The message from the West is clear: that India must shift its position on three counts: to do more at the UN, where New Delhi has consistently abstained from resolutions criticizing Moscow; to join the sanctions regime; and to avoid contracting for more Russian oil, or sending civil or military supplies to the Putting regime until the war ends. The flurry of visits, comments by officials, and press statements by diplomats indicate that tensions between Russia and the West have reached a point of no return, and New Delhi is being asked to make a very pointed choice between them.     While there are several reasons why New Delhi had declined the attempts to steer it from its course on Russia that are linked to its strong partnership with Russia, there are some global interests that the Modi government must consider more closely. The civilian toll in Ukraine is mountain, and while Russia had denied reports of targeted attacks on schools and theatres, it is necessary for New Delhi to acknowledge any Russian violation of human rights, especially as the Kremlin has not yet fully clarified its endgame. Second, while India has expressed concerns over nuclear safety, it must be willing to make this an issue with Moscow, if necessary. Another area is the threat of chemical and biological warfare, and while the Indian representative spoke strongly at the UN Security Council about the importance of fully implementing the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, the Government must be prepared to vote on the issue and call out any side that violates these. As the war progresses, more such debates will arise, and New Delhi must retain its ability to judge and shift its position from “being neutral” and “abstentionist” to one more wholly seized of the issues, and as a leading nation that is able to exercise its “strategic autonomy” on matters of principle, when required.   The spring blues    A fresh guard is needed to nurture India’s fledgling economic recovery This week, India will complete two years since the Government embarked on what is now considered the harshest and quickest lockdowns in the world in a bid to block entry points for the infectious COVID-19 virus. The efficacy of that lockdown, both in terms of cubing infection rates (and mortality rates) and the accompanying hardships imposed on the population at large can be debated at length. There is, however, little argument over the massive economic costs for the country. The RBI has underlined that some of that damage to India’s GDP is permanent. This can be linked to businesses shutting shop for good, labourers migrating home (with many choosing not to return) and consumers turning increasingly reluctant. The rebuilding effort remains a work in progress, although record tax collections would suggest that all is well. Personal consumption and employment-driving contact-intensive sectors remain below pre-pandemic levels, even as other macro metrics have surpassed pre-COVID performance. Just as the virus appeared to be ebbing, triggering hopes of a revival in consumer confidence, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has thrown up fresh challenges, including high commodity and crude oil prices.     Health-care costs are considered a key factor for pushing several middle- and lower-income households below the poverty line, while high inflation affects all economic actors. The Russia-Ukraine situation has not only catapulted gas, oil and coal prices higher but also fertilizers, wheat, corn, and seed oil. A section of farmers growing crops such as wheat may gain, but inflation in essential items such as food and transport, will impact the poor the most. For now, India’s oil marketing companies, who the Government has argued determine the retail prices of fuel, have shown extreme benevolence in holding rates at November 2021 levels and this may persist till Parliament’s current session ends. This is, however, not fiscally sustainable, just as the Finance Ministry has argued that high global commodity prices are not. A prolonged conflict in Europe could tip the global economy into recession, even as monetary policy missteps and social risks associated with high inflation could dampen growth, Moody’s Investors Service warned last week. On the other hand, the Governments robust direct tax collections that have surpassed even revised estimates by 1.13 lack crore rupees, give it room to not just push forward the LIC share sale till market volatility subsides but also slash fuel taxes further, curb other inflationary pressures and expand the COVID-19 booster shots coverage. Unless people get more certainty about the pandemic’s end-game, and have some money in their hands, it would be difficult to spur consumption enough to reach the necessary next stage of the recovery – a revival in private investments.

Indian’s stand on the Ukraine war is tragic New Delhi cannot crawl for the goodwill of Russia but must at least condemn Moscow’s aggression and illegal invasion SUBRAMANIAM SWAMY It is just under a month since Russia declared a unilaterally-waged war on Ukraine on land and by air. What the world has witnessed is he unbridled destruction of a democratic nation, Ukraine, by a heavily armed, nuclear weapons power and veto-holding Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council, viz., Russia.     This UN status was obtained by Russia as an uncontested residual legatee of the Soviet Union of which Russia and Ukraine were large parts; the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) unraveled into 15 nations in 1988-91 – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan. Much resistance The Ukrainians are resisting the Russian advance to capture the capital, Kyiv, by demonstrating sheer nationalism and courage, and with welcome support of the developed western nations.        Despite this status today, Russia is not near its announced goal of conquering a largely unarmed Ukraine.     What must be painful to the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is that his military, despite the carpet bombing and disruption of civil facilities and over four weeks of battering Ukraine and causing widespread destruction, has not managed to capture any major city in Ukraine. Such is the valiant fighting spirit of the people of Ukraine.    The bare fact is that Ukraine, a recognized nation and United Nations member-state, has been invaded by a Permanent Member of the apex Security Council, violating the UN Charter. India cannot crawl for the goodwill of Russia. But at the very least, India must condemn Russia for its aggression and illegal invasion.     Mr. Putin’s constant refrain, that he wants the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine and that the Ukrainians are pro-Nazi, is incredible since Ukraine embraced Nazi Germany in the 1940s to escape the genocide in Ukraine carried out by Joseph Stalin’s Russia during the decade of 1930-40. Moreover, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is a Jew and his father suffered much during Hitler’s occupation of Ukraine. The ICJ’s wrap Another blow to the prestige of Russia has come from the International Court of Justice. After hearings held recently, the Hague-based International Court of Justice (ICJ) directed Russia to halt the war immediately, stating that the ICJ “is profoundly concerned by Moscow’s use of force in violation of international law”. The ICJ judges voted 13-2 in favour of the ruling.     The Indian judge on the ICJ and a former Supreme Court of India judge, Justice Dalveer Bhandari, also voted against Russia despite the Narendra Modi government’s votes of abstention on other international forums on the same issue. The Ministery of External Affairs promptly disowned Justice Bhandari’s vote, with a spokesperson saying that judges at the ICJ “vote in their individual capacity”. This is silly! A judge cannot be a representative of a government when sitting in court. A damaging stance The most deplorable examples of human rights atrocities in the 21st century – which is being carried out by the Russian military – have also exposed the UN and the Security Council for their ineffectiveness. Obviously, the UN needs a restructuring after its past of almost 80 years of existence – and one of mostly helplessness.     What is more tragic today is India’s stand. India, despite its large geographical size and population, has refused to criticize, leave alone denounce, Russia’s 19th century type of warfare in Ukraine, especially since the Russian military is disrupting civil society and killing the innocent.    Combined with its abstention votes at the UN, India, by its reticence to take a stand for democracy has not only affected its relations with the democratic nations of the West but also caused consternation among its Quad partners (i.e., the United states, Australia and Japan).    India has become vulnerable to a possible massive military adventure by China and risks isolation by traditionally democratic nations, and their help and their support.    The non-democratic nations, besides Russia, such as China, North Korea and Venezuela, are either already hostile towards India for other reasons, or are unlikely to stand with India on other international issues of (India’s) public concern.     Part of the problem for India arises from the attempt to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds in foreign policy. Thus, the flip flops on Afghanistan, Nepal, BRICS, the Quad, Iran, and now on the Ukraine war launched by Russia, have devalued India’s reputation to levels well below its ‘military strike hard power’ and ‘huge population soft power’. The BRICS resolution As already brought out by this writer in an article in this daily, titled “Ukraine’s situation, India’s national interest”, in the BRICS meet in 2021 in New Delhi with leaders of five nations present, viz., India, China, Russia, South Africa and Brazil, India had moved a resolution that was passed unanimously in its New Delhi Declaration (paragraph 22 in the XIII BRICS Summit, September 9, 2021). The core demand in this resolution was that the five BRICS nations were opposed to the unilateral use of force against any state wanted all disputes resolved by peaceful means, and categorically ruled out the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. But India remained unflappable despite the political hypocrisy of Russia and China.     Another blatant violation of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been brought out in The Hindu, February 27, 2022, in an explainer, “When and how did Ukraine give up its nuclear arsenal?”. When Ukraine won its independence from the then unraveling USSR in 1991, it had the world’s third largest stock of nuclear weapons. Statistics made public showed that Ukraine had about 19,00 strategic nuclear warheads, 176 ICBMs, and 44 long distance strategic bombers.     In 1991, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum with Russia, the U.S., and the United Kingdom. According to the Memorandum, these three veto-holding permanent members of the UNSC agreed to respect the “independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and existing borders of Ukraine”. But Russia has now welched on this treaty commitment since March 2014 when it annexed a part of Ukraine, viz., Crimea.     If India has to play a role in international affairs, leave alone hopes of being a Vishwa Guru, the Narendra Modi government at the very least has a moral duty of restoring India’s international credibility; it must raise this Hitler-like tearing up of written agreements, not to mention the disregard for the 2021 BRICS Resolution, by Russia directly and China indirectly of an India-proposed resolution.     In fact, India’s reputation on this issue is now being seen very adversely, internationally. The Prime Minister’s much touted labels pinned on him by his admirers in India have dimmed.     In the context of the U.S. President, Joe Biden, calling Mr. Putin a war criminal, India is ending up looking pitiable as if the Government is under some extra-political compulsions. The India nation, however, needs to know the truth.     Get these wrinkles out of the South Asian textile story Ensuring government support for financial incentives, upgrading technologies and re-skilling labour are key challenges SYED MUNIR KHASRU South Asia became a major player in the global textiles and clothing market with the onset of the third wave of global production. Bangladesh joined the league in the 1980s, owing to the outbreak of the civil war in Sri Lanka. Supportive industrial policy was an instrumental factor in the 1990s, with zero duty on raw material and capital machinery, as access to global markets led to the industry’s boom. Bangladesh overtook India in exports in the past decade as Indian labour costs resulted in products becoming 20% more expensive. Standing of countries Lower production costs and free trade agreements with western buyers are what favour Bangladesh, which falls third in the line as a global exporter. The progress of India and Pakistan in readymade garments is recent when compared to their established presence in textiles. India holds a 4% share of the U.S. $480 billion global textile and apparel market, and is in fifth position. India’s exports later witnessed a larger volume of business, following a 0.8% dip in 2019. Pakistan saw a 24.73% rise in textile exports (2021-22), bagging an amount of U.S. $10.933 billion.     India has been successful in developing backward links, with the aid of the Technical Up gradation Fund Scheme (TUFS), in the cotton and technical textiles industry. However, India is yet to move into man-made fibres as factories still operate in seasonal fashion. Pakistan remains much focused on cotton products; it falls behind due to skilling and policy implementation issue. Bangladesh has been ahead of time in adopting technology. Bangladesh also concentrates on cotton products, specializing in the low-value and mid-market price segment. The country faces the challenge of high attrition and skilling which results in higher costs. Sri Lanka attained the most progress in ascending the value chain. Progress in training, quality control, product development and merchandising are attracting international brands to Sri Lanka. In leap ahead, the hurdles The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) has been shifting focus from production machinery to integrating technology in the entire production life cycle. The production cycle incorporates all digital information and automation including robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), virtual reality, 3D printing, etc. Robotic automation exemplifies production efficiency, especially in area such as cutting and colour accuracy. In the days ahead, comprehensive restructuring can be expected in systems adaptation to human and market needs. With change come opportunities as well as challenges. The Asian Development Bank anticipates the challenges of job losses and disruption, inequality and political instability, concentration of market power by global giants and more vulnerability to cyber attacks.     India’s production centres are operational at near full capacity, with companies contemplating business and production capacity expansions. With a 7% unemployment rate, India faces the challenge of job creation in the wake of increased automation. The World Bank expects this trend to accelerate in the post-COVID-19 market. The 4IR may result in unemployment or poor employment generation, primarily affecting a low skill workforce. The integration of skilling and technological investments will play a vital role in phasing out obsolete jobs, and adapting to new ones. It is imperative to ensure living wages and ease of access to education. The market switched from ‘seasonal fashion’ to ‘fast fashion’, and later to ‘accurate fashion’, reducing lead time. Digitalization and automation in area such as design, prototyping, and production are key in order to stay abreast, and in controlling production quality and timely delivery. Quick transportation becomes important in costing control, as re-shoring and near-shoring gain currency. While a transition may be easier for large factories, medium and small-scale entities may suffer. Adoption of new technology and automation is closely linked to in-product basket diversity creation too. On sustainability Sustainability is also an important consideration for foreign buyers. Bangladesh’s readymade garments initiated ‘green manufacturing’ practices to help conserve energy, water, and resources. Textile and apparel effluents account for 17%-20% of all water pollution. Many Indian players are focusing on input management over tailpipe management. Sustainable practices such as regenerative organic farming (that focuses on soil health, animal welfare, and social fairness), sustainable manufacturing energy (renewable sources of energy are used) and circularity are being adopted. The Indian government is also committed to promoting sustainability through project sustainable resolution.     Tax exemptions or reductions in imported technology, accessibility to financial incentives, maintaining political stability and establishing good trade relations are some of the fundamental forms of support the industry needs from governments. The labour lead Access to affordable labour continues to be an advantage for the region. In addition, a country such as India with a very high number of scientists and engineers could lead, as is evident in the areas of drones, AI and block chain. India’s potential lies in its resources, infrastructure, technology, demographic dividend and policy framework. The creation of a centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution is indicative of India’s intent. The U.S. trade war on China owing to human rights violations along with its economic bottlenecks opens doors for India and Pakistan as they have strong production bases. Similar to China, India has a big supply – from raw material to garments. Bangladesh has also risen as a top exporter in a cost competitive global market. Bangladesh’s investments in technology in the past decades are an added advantage. On gaining significant knowledge and advanced technologies over the last 30 years, it is in Prime position. Bangladesh has envisioned the year 2041 for technological advancement, especially in ICT. Pakistan imported machinery (+77.5%) worth U.S. $504 million by the first half of 2019-20. India’s proposed investments of US$1.4 billion and the establishment of all-in-one textile parks are expected to increase employment and ease of trade. India extended tax rebates in apparel export till 2024, with the twin goals of competitiveness and policy stability. Labour law reforms, additional incentives, income tax relaxations, duty reductions for man-made fibre, etc. are other notable moves. A map out Cotton product dependency and a focus on only major export destinations may diminish the market scope for South Asia. Diversification with respect to technology, the product basket and the client base are to be noted. Adaptability in meeting the demands of manmade textiles, other complex products and services are also important. Newer approaches in the areas of compliance, transparency, occupational safety, sustainable production, etc. are inevitable changes in store for South Asia to sustain and grow business. Re-skilling and up-skilling of the labour force should also be a priority for the region to stay aloft in the governments’ proactive support in infrastructure, capital, liquidity and incentivization.