THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH 15, 2022
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The failed troika The Congress should not shy away from
introspection of its leadership
The Congress has precluded the possibility of any honest conversation
at a proposed brainstorming on its plight by hailing the leadership of Sonia
Gandhi beforehand. Ms. Gandhi and her two children, Rahul and Priyanka,
control the party, but it would be illogical to attribute the collapse of the
Congress party entirely to the Gandhi family. The meltdown of the Congress
has been caused by a combination of several factors that evolved over
decades. At the same time, the Gandhis cannot wash their hands of the debacle
that they have led the Congress into. They failed to see the ground shifting
under their feet and showed no imagination or willingness to work hard.
Popular leaders were routinely sidelined and a cabal of court jesters was
allowed to capture Rajya Sabha seats and control power. Mr. Gandhi who
famously did not get along with the coterie that surrounded his mother, built
a rootless, clueless one of his own, and made some disastrous choices such as
appointing Navjot Singh Sidhu to lead the campaign in Punjab. In Uttarakhand,
even in the face of a confused Bharatiya Janata Party, the Congress could not
get its act together. In some contexts, dynastic politics
continue to flourish, but for the Congress, it has become a huge burden to
carry. It is not that the party will miraculously revive if all three members
of the Gandhi family move away from the party, as Ms. Gandhi suggested before
the Congress Working Committee meeting on Sunday. What is clear is that the
current arrangement that involves Ms. Gandhi as titular head, and her
children functioning as two unaccountable power centres, has become
untenable. Whether the Congress party has the capacity to hold itself
together without the ritual of deifying the family remains an open question,
but it can no longer shy away from making an alternative leadership that is
more accountable and accessible. The Gandhis too must reflect upon their
competence and utility for the Congress. The proposed brainstorming must
focus on the existential crisis that stares at the party, and should not be
used as yet another opportunity to find excuses to maintain the status quo.
The party had appointed a committee to examine the causes of its performance
in the 2021 Assembly polls in five States/Union Territory. The report was
submitted, but rather than discuss it, the party chose to lock it away. The
party must look for ideas and leaders from within its ranks to attempt a
revival. It is an uphill task and anything short of a brutally honest
introspection is doomed to fail at the outset. A new deal Any delay in Iran deal will deepen
security crisis in West Asia and inflate global oil prices The Vienna talks
aimed at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known
as the Iran nuclear deal, have hit a wall after Russia sought sanctions
exemptions for its future trade and defence ties with Iran. European
negotiators say “a good deal” is on the table. But Russia, which has been
slapped with a barrage of sanctions by the United States and its allies over
the Ukraine invasion, seeks written guarantees that those curbs would not “in
any way harm” its ties with Iran. The nuclear deal, reached in 2015, started
unraveling in 2018 as the Trump administration unilaterally pulled the U.S.
out of the agreement despite international certification that Iran was fully
compliant with its terms. After the U.S.’s withdrawal, Iran started enriching
uranium to a higher purity and installing advanced centrifuges at its nuclear
plants. Now, nuclear experts believe Iran is just months away from having
enough high purity uranium to make a nuclear bomb, though the Iranian
leadership has repeatedly claimed that it has no plan to make one. Western
officials say the growing nuclear capability of Iran demands urgent steps to
conclude the deal and curb its nuclear programme. Removing sanctions on Iran
and letting Iran’s oil enter the global market could also ease oil and gas
prices, which shot up after the Russian attack on Ukraine. The West’s push to conclude the deal
gives Russia added leverage in the negotiations, at a time when relations
between Moscow and western capitals are at their lowest point since the end
of the Cold War. The U.S. and Europe and reportedly looking for alternatives
to revive the deal without Russia. But it would not be easy. Russia, an
original signatory of the JCPOA, is a member of the joint commission that
supervises Iran’s compliance. Under the agreement, Russia is also required to
take control of Iran’s excess enriched uranium and work with Tehran to turn
its Fordow nuclear plant into a research facility. In theory, the deal can be
revived if other signatories take up Russia’s responsibilities. But it is not
clear whether Iran and China would be ready to go ahead without Russia. While
the Iranians have publicly said they would not allow any “external factors”
to impact their national interests, Tehran is unlikely to ignore the sensitivity
of Russia, an ally, and reach an agreement with the U.S., whose exit scuttled
the original deal. This leaves the future of the nuclear deal in Russian
hands. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s response to it have
already sent commodity prices soaring and shaken the global economy, which is
yet to come out of the COVID-19 shock. A further delay or a total collapse of
the Iran deal would not only deepen the security crisis in West Asia but also
add pressure on global oil and gas prices. The signatories should not hold
the Iran deal to ransom. They should continue to push for a collective
agreement that could curb Ira’s nuclear programme and take the country into
the global economic mainstream. |
Fragmenting world
order, untied nations The impact of the Ukraine war on
global interconnectedness is cause for worry in the post-World War order SUHASINI HAIDAR Nearly three
weeks into the Russian war on Ukraine, the cost to India is still to be
counted. While some are focusing on how India’s refusal to criticize Russia’s
actions, and the string of abstentions at the United Nations, would affect
its relations with the West and its Quad partners (the United States,
Australia and Japan), others are watching the economic costs that the
unprecedented sanctions of the U.S. and the European Union will have on
Indian trade, energy and defence purchases. However, the outcome that should
worry New Delhi and other like-minded countries the most, apart from the
devastating consequences for the Ukrainian nation, is the impact the Ukraine
crisis is having on the global world order, which is fragmenting in every
respect of global interconnectedness – in terms of international cooperation,
security, military use, economic order, and even cultural ties. The UN and
Security Council To begin with, the global order has
broken down and events in Ukraine have exposed the United Nations and the
Security Council for their complete ineffectiveness. Russia’s actions in
Ukraine may, in terms of refusing to seek an international mandate, seem no different
from the war by the United States in Iraq in 2003, Israel’s bombing of
Lebanon in 2006 and the Saudi-coalition’s attacks of Yemen in 2015.
But Ukraine is in fact a bigger blow to the post-World War order than
any other. The direct missile strikes and bombing of Ukrainian cities every
day, exacting both military and civilian casualties, and the creation of
millions of refuges, run counter to every line of the UN Charter preamble,
i.e. “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war…”, “to practice
tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbors”, as
well as Articles 1 and 2 of the ‘Purposes and Principles’ of the United
Nations (Chapter 1) (https://bit.ly/3w4BS5X). The
fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin broadcast his decision to “launch
military operations” on Ukraine at the same time the Russian envoy to the
United Nations was presiding over a UN Security Council discussion on the
Ukraine crisis, speaks volumes for the respect the P-5 member felt for the
proceedings. A vote of the international commons. Or the UN General Assembly
(UNGA), that decried Moscow’s actions, was brushed off in a way that was even
easier than when the U.S. did when it lost the UNGA vote in 2017 over its
decision to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
Meanwhile, in their responses, other P-5 members such as the United
States, the United Kingdom and France did not seek to strengthen the global
order either, imposing sanctions unilaterally rather than attempting to bring
them to the UN. Clearly, Russia would have vetoed any punitive measures, but
that should not have stopped the attempt. Nor are the surges in weapons
transfer to Ukraine a vote of confidence in the UN’s power to effect a truce. Whither nuclear
safeguards The next point is Russian recklessness
with regard to nuclear safety in a country that has suffered the worst
impacts of poor safety and planning following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster
(when Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union), which is a challenge to the
global nuclear order. Russian military’s moves to target areas near Chernobyl
and shell buildings near the Zaprizhzhia nuclear power plant (also Europe’s
largest), show an alarming nonchalance towards safeguards in place over
several decades, after the U.S.’s detonation of atomic bombs over Hiroshima
and Nagasaki in 1945 led to the establishment of the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) in 1956. The world must also consider the cost to the
nuclear non-proliferation regime’s credibility: Ukraine and Libya that
willingly gave up nuclear programmes have been invaded, while regimes such as
Iran and North Korea can defy the global order because they have held on to
their nuclear deterrents.
There are also the covenants agreed upon during the global war on
terrorism, which have been degraded, with the use of non-stats actors in the
Ukraine crisis. For years, pro-Russia armed militia operated in the Donbas
regions, challenging the writ of the government in Kyiv. With the arrival of
Russian troops, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has invited all
foreign fighters who are volunteering to support his forces to the country.
This seeks to mirror the “International Brigades” in the Spanish Civil War of
the 1930s, comprising foreign volunteers from about 50 countries against
forces of Spanish military ruler Francisco Franco.
However, the role of foreign fighters has taken on a more sinister
meaning after 2001 and al Qaeda, when western recruits joined the Islamic
State to fight Syrian President Assad’s forces. British Foreign Secretary Liz
Truss’s recent statement that she would “absolutely support” British veterans
and volunteers joining the Ukraine war against Russia has since been reversed
by the British Foreign Office, and it is hoped that other countries around
the world, including India, make firm efforts towards preventing such
“non-state actors” from joining a foreign war. Economic actions Economic sanctions by the U.S., the
U.K. and the European Union (EU) also point to a fragmentation of the global
financial order. While analysts have pointed out that the sanctions announced
so far do not include some of Russia’s biggest banks such as Sberbank and
Gaz-prombank and energy agencies (in order to avoid the disruption of oil and
gas from Russia), the intent to cut Russia out of all monetary and financial
systems remains. From the eviction of Russia from SWIFT payments, to the
cancellation of MasterCard, Visa, American Express and PayPal, to the sanctioning
of specific Russian businesses and oligarchs and pressure on Western
businesses (McDonalds, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, etc.) operating in Russia to shut
down, the arbitrary and unilateral nature of western sanctions rub against
the international financial order set up under the World Trade Organization
(that replaced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT).
The obvious fallout of this “economic cancel culture” will, without
doubt, be a reaction – a pushback from Russia and an exploration of
alternative trading arrangements with countries such as China, India and much
of the Eastern Hemisphere which continue to trade with Moscow. For the S-400
missile defence deal, for example, New Delhi used a rupee-rouble mechanism
and banks that were immunized from the U.S.’s CAATSA sanctions (or Countering
America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) for advance payments. Russia
banks will now use the Chinese “Union Pay” for online transactions.
Gradually, the world may see a “non-dollar” system emerge which would run
banking, fintech and credit systems separately from the “dollar world”. Isolation by
culture Finally, there is the western
objective, to “isolate” Russia, socially and culturally, that rails against
the global liberal order. While several governments including the U.S., the
U.K. and Germany have persistently said that their quarrel is not with
Russian citizens but with their leadership, it is clear that most of their
actions will hurt the average Russian citizen. The EU’s ban of all
Russia-owned, Russia-controlled or Russian-registered planes from EU
airspace, and Aeroflot’s cancellation of international routes, will ensure
that travel to and from Russia is severely curtailed. Some of this isolation
of its citizens will work to the favour of an increasingly authoritarian
Kremlin. Mr. Putin’s response to the banning of Russian channels in Europe
and its allies has been to use the western media ban as a pretext to ban
opposition-friendly Russian channels as well. The “isolation” extends to art
and music: in the past two weeks the Munich Philharmonic fired its chief
conductor and New York’s Metropolitan Opera let a Russian soprano, Anna
Netrebko, go because they would not criticize the war. The Bolshoi Ballet’s
performances in London and Madrid were similarly cancelled.
The perils of this comprehensive boycott of Russia are not without
historical precedent. Speaking to his Parliament this week, Mr. Zelensky
invoked British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s “Fight to the End” speech,
delivered at the House of Commons in June 1940, to speak about Ukraine’s commitment
to fight Russia. European onlookers would do well to also remember
Churchill’s other famous speech, “The Sinews of peace”, delivered in the United States in
1946, when he first referred to the “Iron curtain coming down” between Soviet
Russia and Western Europe. “The safety of the world requires a new unity in
Europe, from which no nation should be permanently outcast,” Churchill had
warned, although his words went in vain and the world suffered the
consequences of the Cold War for the next four decades. New Delhi needs to ponder
The events over the past two weeks, set in motion by Russia’s
declaration of war on Ukraine, have no doubt reversed many of the ideas of
1945 and 1990, fragmenting the international order established with the UN,
ushering in an era of de-globalization and bringing down another Iron
Curtain. India’s abstentionist responses and its desire not to be critical of
any of the actions taken by the big powers might keep Indians safe in the
short term. But in the long term, it is only those nations that move
proactively to uphold, strengthen and reinvent the global order that will
make the world a safer place, even as this war that promises few winners
rages on. The war’s cold
facts and what India needs to glean As hard power dictates terms in geo-politics, India’s Atmanirbhar
push needs to move to mission mode MANMOHAN BAHADUR “There is no finer teacher of war than
war,” said Mao and as the Ukraine-Russia war nears the end of three weeks, it
is time one takes stock of India’s position in the real world of geopolitics.
In the real world, ‘power’ talks – as Greek historian Thucydides wrote
in the Fifth Century BC, “Right, as the world goes, is only in question
between equals in power – while the strong do what they can and the weak
suffer what they must.” The dogged resistance of Ukraine notwithstanding,
‘power’ has spoken through Russian actions, with Russian President Vladimir
Putin demanding that all Russian demands be met, including to call to
surrender. This leads to two fundamental deductions at the macro-level. Ukraine is alone First, a nation’s vital interests can
be protected only by that nation itself. For all the pompous statements
coming from the West, promises of arms supply being made and intelligence
inputs that must be getting transmitted, the fact is that it is the
Ukrainians alone who are facing the brunt of the Russian military might. It
has always been conjectured whether the United States would come to the aid
of a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally in Europe, following a Russian
advance, and risk its own cities in turn. The answer is starkly visible. Good
intentions and media statements have never stopped a bullet and surely, there
would be soul searching that is ongoing in the minds of allies such as Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan too, as the fallacy of a ‘friend’ coming to fight with
you and for you has been exposed, yet again. The Indian
parallel India’s experience has been similar.
During the 1962 India-China war, Moscow had no time for New Delhi (in fact,
it sided with Beijing) and the Americans offered moral and logistic support,
despite New Delhi’s request for military help. The 1965 war was one of
redemption as India re-armed itself in a big way, a drive that continued and
gave us the outright victory in 1971. Then, in 1974, it is to the credit of
the Indian leadership for demonstrating India’s scientific capability through
a ‘peaceful’ nuclear explosion and the leadership in 1998 for going overtly
nuclear. To the common man, this constitutes power, but between two
nuclear-capable nations, an atomic weapon is a deterrent in the nuclear realm
and not a determinant of ‘conventional’ power. As India faces two nuclear
adversaries, the reality of India having lagged in true indigenous
conventional capability must be accepted. This leads to the second deduction.
For a nation to have strategic autonomy in matters of national
security, self-sufficiency in defence research and development and
manufacturing is an inescapable imperative. This would afford the required
deterrence to prevent war, and to prosecute it (war) if deterrence fails. The
sessions at the United Nations on Ukraine, where India abstained, saw New
Delhi as tightrope walker as it is heavily dependent on Russia and the U.S.,
for political reason as well as for arms. Arms from the West too After the Cold War ended, India diversified
its purchases to dilute its dependence on Russia for arms. While the
narrative has been on the MiGs, Antonovs, Sukhois, S-400, T-90 tanks, Grad
rocket launchers, Kilo-class submarines, et. Al, one overlooks the fact that
India has become heavily dependent on the West too for a multitude of
frontline armament systems. For example, the heavylift transport fleet of the
India Air Force (IAF) relies heavily on the American C-17 and C-130J Super
Hercules aircraft, while the helicopter fleet has the Chinook and Apache attack
helicopters. Similarly, the Indian Navy has the Boeing P-81 long range
aircraft for maritime surveillance and is acquiring MH-60 helicopters for
anti-submarine warfare and Sea Guardian drones for reconnaissance. The Indian
Army’s M777 artillery guns are from the West, the IAF’s Rafale and Mirage
fighters from France, Jaguars from Britain and multitude of drones from
Israel; even the basic infantry rifle is being imported. And, India has
signed three ‘foundational’ agreements with the U.S.; the sword of Damocles,
through the Countering America’s Adversaries Through sanctions Act (CAATSA)
is ever present. The list is very long and encompasses both ‘camps,’ as it
were. Are there any doubts now about why, besides political reasons, we
abstained in the UN Security Council vote? So, what is the way out?
The writing is on the wall. A nation’s standing in the pecking order
based only on soft power is ephemeral. As the West twiddles its thumbs,
‘Ukraine’ proves that hard power dictates terms in geo-politics. Thucydides
understood it in Fifth century BC and we are in for a rough time if we do not
get it even now. The Atmanirbhar thrust of the Government in matters of
defence research and development and manufacturing, though gathering pace,
has to become a national endeavour in mission mode, bridging differences
across the political aisle and providing a political continuum to underwrite
it. There is no other way out. |
