THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH 12, 2022
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Mood for change AAP will require more than just a
reliance on populism to succeed in governance When an electorate is tired of the
ruling parties both at the Centre and at the State level during are opponents
– the chances that people will vote for a fresh alternative are high. But
this does not always happen in Indian elections. Parties professing to be an
alternative to the established ones take time to emerge, even if they are the
product of social or political movements Electoral success is achieved only
if they cross a high threshold of competitiveness that is made possible through
messaging and organization besides peoples’ yearning for change. The Aam
Aadmi Party’s spectacular triumph in Punjab – winning 92 of the 117
constituencies – needs to be tempered with the fact that it won 42% of the
votes in what was largely concentrated in the southern Malwa region. This
time, in 2022, its vote share (47.2%) was the highest in Malwa. It also
managed a credible 30.2% and 36.8% in the Doab and Majha regions,
respectively, helping it sweep the State. Of the three major losing parties
including the BJP, the Congress looked to be the best placed a year ago.
Strongly mobilized opposition to the BJP government’s farm laws had caused
the BJP-SAD alliance to break up. While the Captain Amarinder Singh-led
Congress government had not fully lived up to expectations, the party had
little to lose from the agitations and could have capitalized on the public
mood by seeking to implement its promises made in 2017. But an ill-conceived
move by its high command, forcing out Capt. Amarinder and empowering the ruble rousing, party-hopping former cricketer, Navjot Singh Sindhu, to take
over the reins of the Party created unnecessary tumult. Even the Party’s last
minute promotion of the new Chief Minister, Charanjit Singh Channi, was not
enough to shift the mood of the electorate, which had lost patience with the
party, now riven by internal
bickering. The electorate’s dissatisfaction with the Centre and the Congress
regime in the State is evident in the CSDS Lokniti Survey: a net negative
satisfaction of -44 and -52 points, respectively. With grievances and anger
over the corruption under the previous SAD regime still fresh, AAP emerged as
the default alternative. Its promises of clean governance and populist
measures in health, education and power supply – already implemented in Delhi
– were able to sway a large section of a disenchanted electorate. But it is
one thing to succeed in governance in what is largely a municipality by
eschewing ideological perspectives and focusing on just populist measures. It
will be a challenge to effect this in an important border State such as
Punjab. AAP has its task cut out. Skies wide open The resumption of regular
international flights should help the travel and hospitality sectors The Government’s decision to allow
scheduled commercial international flights to resume operations from later
this month will come as a big relief to the travel, tourism and hospitality
sectors, which have been among the hardest hit by the pandemic. The International
Air Transport Association estimates that the global aviation industry
suffered about $201 billion in losses between 2020 and 2022 due to COVID-19
and the accompanying curbs on overseas travel and domestic mobility. The
tourism and hospitality industry largely feeds off the aviation sector for
its earnings and jobs growth, evident from estimates that in 2020 – the year
of lockdowns – India’s foreign exchange earnings from tourist arrivals from
abroad plummeted 76% from the previous year, to 50,136 crore rupees. Official
data show that in just the nine months ended December 2020; 21.5 million jobs
were lost in tourism. However, the decision to open up international travel
has coincided with the intensification of sanctions on Russia in the wake of its
invasion of Ukraine, which in turn has set oil prices soaring on fears of
disruptions to global energy supply chains. The price of crude oil has zoomed
close to historical peaks. As a result, aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices
have also jumped by almost 60% year-on-year. This month, India’s state-owned
oil marketing companies raised ATF prices for the fifth time this year, and
this was before crude soared to near record highs. Fuel costs typically
constitute about one fifth of a global airline’s operating expenditure and
multiple price increases are certain to hurt airlines’ margins and viability. The conflict in Ukraine has also
triggered a sharp jump in a wide range of commodity prices that is
potentially set to quicken inflation across the globe. This is bound to seep
into the cost of overseas travel as well, with travelers needing to budget
more for food and entertainment. Airlines will find it a challenge to fill
seats profitably, given the combination of rising costs, economic uncertainty
triggered by the conflict in Eastern Europe and the residual fear among
travelers of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Strict regulations as
various parts of the world cautiously open their borders to visitors will
only add to the burden of the aviation and the hospitality industries. And,
with the pandemic and restricted mobility having steered corporate to conduct
business online effectively, getting business-related travel back to
pre-pandemic levels will be a tough ask. Restoring visitor confidence through
enforcement of COVID—19 protocols and widening vaccination coverage alone may
not be enough. Estimates show that indirect taxes take away 21% of airlines’
revenue, hobbling the sector. Lowering ATF prices by cutting duties is an
option the Government must weigh. Everything must be done to woo back more
tourists. |
Shutdown this
misguided energy policy The vulnerabilities of reactors and
their high costs are strong reasons why India must cancel its nuclear
expansion plans SUVRAT RAJU & M.V. RAMANA Nuclear technology is hazardous. The
world was reminded of this on March 3, when a fire broke out near the Zaprizhzhia
nuclear plant in Ukraine (Europe’s largest) during the course of military
battle. Had the fire affected the cooling system, the plant’s power supply, or
its spent fuel pool, a major disaster could have occurred. Luckily, this did
not happen. Eleven years ago, the people of Japan
were not as fortunate. On March 11, 2011, multiple reactors at the Fukushima
Daiichi nuclear plant suffered severe accidents after an earthquake and a
tsunami. Those reactors were quickly “shut down” following the earthquake.
But their radioactive cores continued producing heat and eventually melted
down because the tsunami knocked out the cooling system. The aftershocks of the Fukushima
disaster were felt beyond Japan and led to a slump in nuclear energy in most
of the world. Yet, some policymakers insist on expanding nuclear power,
ostensibly in response to climate-change concerns. On December 15, 2021, the Indian
government informed Parliament that it plans to build “10 indigenous
reactors… in fleet mode” and had granted “in principle approval” for 28
additional reactors, including 24 to be imported from France, the U.S. and
Russia. Given the post-Fukushima global and national trends in the nuclear
industry, such a policy seems misguided; nuclear power is neither an
economical source of electricity nor a viable route to meeting India’s
climate goals. Nuclear power plants are capital
intensive and recent nuclear builds have suffered major cost overruns. An
illustrative example is the V.V. Summer nuclear project in South Carolina
(U.S.) where costs rose so sharply that the project was abandoned - after an
expenditure of over $9billion. In contrast, renewable-energy
technologies have become cheaper. The Wall Street company, Lazard, estimated
that the cost of electricity from solar photovoltaic and wind turbines in the
U.S. declined by 90% and 72%, respectively, between, 2009-21. In 2020, the
International Energy the “new king of electricity”. This contrast has stymied plans for
expanding nuclear power. In 2008, the U.S. government projected an expansion
of nuclear capacity to 114.9 gigawatts by 2030; in 2021, it predicted that
capacity would contract to 83.3 gigawatts. This mirrors a global trend: in
1996, 17.5% of the world’s electicity came from nuclear power plants; by
2020, this figure had declined to just around 10%. India has also had to drastically cut
its nuclear ambitions after fukushima. In 2008, then chairman of the Atomic
Energy Commission, Anil Kakodkar, projected that India would have 650GW of
installed capacity by 2050; his successor, Srikumar Banerjee, predicted in
2010 that capacity would reach 35 gigawatts by 2020. Installed capacity today
is only 6.78GW. Unviable imports Such targets were based on the
expectation that India would import many light-water reactors after the
India-U.S. civil nuclear deal. But, the deal has not led to the establishment
of a single new nuclear plant, over 13 years after it was concluded. The
worrying part of the Government’s recent parliamentary submission is that
these plans for imports have not been cancelled, as is widely believed, and
still remain on the books. Of the 24 foreign reactors with “in
principle” approval, six are of the VVER (water-water energetic reactor) design
that has had multiple operational problems at Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu. The
cumulative load factors for the Kudankulam-1 and two reactors in 2020 were
just 53% and 52%, respectively. Twelve reactors are proposed to be
imported from the U.S., including at least six AP1000 reactors – the same
design that was abandoned in South Carolina. Elsewhere in the U.S., the
Vogtle project comprising two AP1000 reactors has escalated from an initial
estimate of $14 billion to over $30 billion. The remaining six are of the EPR
design that France has been unable to successfully complete in its home
country. The single EPR plant being constructed in Flamanville in France has
been unable to successfully complete in its home country. The single EPR
plant being constructed in Flamanville in France is now estimated to cost
€12.4 billion, four times what was forecast when construction started in
2007. We estimated in 2013 that had the six
planned EPRs at Jaitapur in Maharashtra been constructed on schedule,
electricity from these reactors would cost at least 15 rupees per unit
excluding transmission costs. Given recent cost escalation, this is most
likely an underestimate. The figures from Vogtle suggest that the proposed
AP1000 reactors would produce power that would similarly be costly. Compare that figure with recent low
bids of 2.14 rupees for solar-wind hybrid projects; even in projects coupled
with storage, bids are around 4.30 rupees per unit. If nuclear electricity is
to be sold at a competitive rate, it would have to be greatly subsidized by
the India government, which operates all nuclear plants through the Nuclear
Power Corporation of India. Understanding
risks Safety concerns following the
Fukushima accident have led to protests against each planned reactor. Vijay
Rupani, then Chief Minister of Gujarat, admitted in the State Assembly in
March 2018 that “locals turned against” the Mithivirdi nuclear project after
the Fukushima disaster. Contrary to the condescending opinion
held by some nucleaocrats, peoples’ concerns are not based on an irrational
fear of nuclear energy. In a densely populated country such as India, land is
at a premium and emergency health care is far from uniformly available. Local
citizens understand that a nuclear disaster might leave large swathes of land
uninhabitable – as in Chernobyl – or require a prohibitively expensive
clean-up –as in Fukushima, where the final costs may eventually exceed $600
billion. Concerns about safety have been
accentuated by the insistence of multinational nuclear suppliers that they be
indemnified of liability for the consequence of any accident in India. Under
pressure from multinational manufacturers, India’s liability law already largely
protects them. But the industry objects to the small window of opportunity
available for the Indian government to hold them to account. The message to local citizens is
simple: manufacturers do not really believe in their own claims about how
safe their reactors are. If they did, they should have been willing to accept
responsibility for any failure rather than insisting on special legal
arrangements. Not available to any other industry. Climate concerns Climate change will increase the risk
of nuclear reactor accidents. The day after the fire at the Zaprizhzhia
nuclear plant, a wildfire approached the Hanul nuclear power plant in South
Korea and President Moon Jae-in ordered “all-out efforts” to avoid an accident
at the reactors there. In 2020, a windstorm caused the Duane Arnold nuclear
plant in the U.S. to cease operations. The frequency of such extreme weather
events is likely to increase in the future. Therefore, nuclear power is not the
right choice to “adapt” to climate change, which requires resilience in power
systems. It is also not the appropriate choice for mitigating India’s carbon
emissions since it cannot be deployed at the necessary scale. The resources
spent on nuclear plants will yield quicker results if they are redirected to renewable. Given the inherent vulnerabilities of
nuclear reactors and their high costs, it would be best for the Government to
unambiguously cancel its plans for a nuclear expansion. The AAP gale wind
that swept through Punjab The scale of its victory is reflective
of the hope that it could be the right party to solve the State’s burning
issues ASHUTOSH KUMAR The 16th Assembly election
in Punjab, in 2022, is a watershed election for the State, also marking a
political deviation from the past. The most notable feature is the verdict
itself – a landslide, after a long time. A certain percentage of Punjab’s
voters have always voted for the three parties – i.e. the Bharatiya Jana
Sangh/Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Akali Dal. The average vote in the past five
Assembly elections for the Congress and the Akali Dal-BJP alliance,
respectively, has been 36.94% and 39.65%. But in this election, electoral
bipolarity, a feature of the political system in the State till the 2017
election, seems to have transitioned to a four-party system. Even the BJP, in
fourth place in this election with two seats, is most likely to chart its own
course; it has never gained from alliances especially with the Akali Dal
(1997-2020), winning only a 6.9% vote shares in the last five Assembly
elections. In the case of similar parties, they have never fared well while
contesting on their own. Nor have they been of much help to their allies. The
Bahujan Samaj Party, with one seat this time, has had a 4.33% vote share in
the last five Assembly elections. The Congress’s
gamble The second notable feature has been
the dismal failure of the Congress’s gamble to line up behind the leadership
of Charanjit Singh Channi (after the ouster of Captain Amarinder Singh) in
the face of stiff opposition from Navjot Singh Sindhu, President, Punjab
Pradesh Congress Committee. It was a desperate but bold move by the party
high command which sensed a sentiment of anti-incumbency and was also aware
of the intense internal wrangling within the Punjab Congress. In choosing Mr. Channi, a Dalit Sikh,
the party defied, in a way, the age-old asymmetrical social basis of
political power in the State that has been in favour of the numerically
strong, landowning Jat Sikhs. Most of the State’s Chief Ministers since the
formation of Sikh majority Punjabi Suba. The Congress leadership might have
factored in that Dalits, who constitute 31.94% of the State’s population,
would help it win. Dalits constitute more than 30% of the population in 55
out of 117 (34 reserved) Assembly constituencies in the State. But even here,
religious and caste divides among Dalits were an obstacle in the way of en
masse voting in favour of Mr. Channi. Interestingly, other parties such as
the Akali Dal – which promised a Dalit Deputy Chief Minister – were also
looking at the Dalit vote. Rural Sikh votes also remained elusive for the
Congress, mainly because of the party’s failure to bring relief to farmers.
These votes did not go to the Akali Dal either. AAP may have gained votes as
its government in Delhi was seen to help protesting farmers at the Delhi
border when they were demanding a rollback of the farm laws. The Congress’s second strategy, i.e.,
to blame the leadership of Captain Amarinder Singh for
misgovernance/non-performance, did not find any takers. Even though there was
an attempt to portray the government under Mr. Channi to be a new one, public
perception was that it was essentially the same old party-government.
Moreover, the Channi government had hardly any time before the election to
show results for three crucial issues that haunt the State; drugs, sacrilege
and the sand, transport, cable mafia. The Channi government made tall
promises and big announcements. The Channi government also spent much of its
time and energy dealing with inner party challenges and accusations leveled
against it by its own party leaders, Navjot Singh Sindhu included. Striking a chord AAP’s stunning victory – 92 out of 117
seats – is reminiscent of its victory in the Delhi elections in 2015. The
sheer scale of its victory, in terms of seats and vote share (42%), shows its
widespread support across casters and communities. There are 39
constituencies in the State where Hindu voters constitute more than 50% of
the electorate and AAP has won most of them. So, it is not only rural Sikhs
who have extended their support to AAP. How does one make sense of the
landslide? The first factor has been huge anti-incumbency against the
Congress and the Akali Dal, the two parties that have shared power at various
times in the State over 25 years. This has been the period that saw a shift
in the political narrative – from ethno-religious issues to better governance
and development. Ironically though, the State has seen a deceleration in
terms of economic growth; the first Green Revolution has run its course while
the promise of a second one remains on paper. There have been frequent
failures of cash crops in the State leading to immense distress for farmers;
the Akali Dal, the self-proclaimed ‘farmers party’, has been unable to find
satisfactory solutions. There are only 20 urban constituencies, the rest are
overwhelmingly rural. This explains the importance of farmers and the issues
related to them in the State. Core issues in
the State Small- and medium-scale industries
that once flourished in Ludhiana and Jalandhar have relocated to
power-surplus and better governed neighboring States such as Himachal
Pradesh. The farm sector crisis in what is essentially a one-sector economy
State has resulted in massive unemployment. There is also a social crisis,
with synthetic drugs ruining the youth. There have been serious allegations
about the complicity of politicians in the sand, transport, cable, liquor and
drug mafias. While parties that have come to power have all promised a
cleaning, in reality the situation has only worsened. The famed State police
force which took on militancy is compromised and politicized. Punjab today is
a pale shadow of its former self, when it was one considered to be the ‘model
State’ in terms of governance and progress 9especially during the Partap Singh
Kairon days). All these developments have also led
to youth losing faith in the future of the State. There is a huge rush among
youth to migrate overseas, with many taking huge risks. A failing education system
is also making many unemployable when it comes to white collar jobs. The
before, these burning social and economic issues may have also influenced
women voters and the youth to consider voting for AAP this time. Women voters
have outnumbered male voters in these and even the last Assembly election. Pitching the
‘Delhi model’ However, the massive scale of AAP’s
victory, while a reflection of the anger and the dissatisfaction with the
congress and the Akali Dal, might be more a yearning for change and hope that
the AAP leadership would be the right party to cleanse the system – a promise
it has made since the 2014 Lok Sabha election. This was also a party
marketing its ‘Delhi model’ with a promise of reforms in the health and
education sectors, in turn possibly making even the cynical voter take note. AAP made course corrections after its
blunders in the 2017 elections such as bringing in “outsiders” from Delhi for
leadership roles. This time, the party not only projected Bhagwant Mann, a
two-time Lok Sabha member and a Jat Sikh, as its chief ministerial candidate
but also kept its distance from the Punjabi Sikh Diaspora, suspected to be
radicals by a segment of voters. Also, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal seems to
have won acceptability as a leader in command in the Punjabi Suba, unlike the
last time. |
