THE HINDU EDITORIAL NEWS – MAY 2, 2022
|
Ending AFSPA AFSPA should go entirely because of
the impunity it offers armed forces It augurs well for the future that Prime Minister Narendra Modi
has given the first authentic indication that the operation of the Armed
Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) may come to an end in the whole of the
north-eastern region, if ongoing efforts to normalize the situation bear
fruit. Mr. Modi’s remark that a good deal of work is being done in that
direction, not only in Assam but also Nagaland and Manipur, may be rooted in
his keenness to demonstrate the level of progress achieved in the region
under his regime; but it will bring immense relief to the citizens,
nevertheless. Areas notified as ‘disturbed areas’ under AFSPA have been
progressively reduced in the last few years, mainly due to the improvement in
the security situation. About a month ago, the Union Home Ministry reduced
such notified areas considerably in Assam, Nagaland and Manipur. There was a
substantial reduction in Assam, where AFSPA was removed entirely in 23
districts and partially in one. In Nagaland, after the removal of the law
from 15 police stations in seven districts, it remains in areas under 57
police stations, spread across 13 districts. Areas under 82 police stations
are still notified under the Act in Manipur; even thought 15 police station
areas were excluded from the notification from April 1. Mr. Modi, who spoke
at a ‘peace, unity and development rally’ in Diphu in Assam last week, cited
“better administration” and the “return of peace” as the reasons for the
removal of AFSPA in these areas in a region that has seen insurgencies for
decades. AFSPA was revoked in
Tripura in 2015 and in Meghalaya in 2018. It is not unforeseeable that other
States will also be excluded from its purview at some point of time. It is
convenient to link the exclusion of an area from AFSPA’s purview with
reduction in violence by armed groups, improvement in the security situation
and an increase in development activity, but what is important is the
recognition that the law created an atmosphere of impunity and led to the
commission of excesses and atrocities. It was hardly four months ago that 15
civilians were killed in Mon district in Nagaland in a botched military operation.
Therefore, alongside the gradual reduction in the areas under the Act, there
should be serious efforts to procure justice for victims of past excesses
too. On the political side, it is indeed true that much headway has been made
in moving towards a political solution to some of the multifarious disputes
in the region, in the form of peace accords, ceasefire and creation of
sub-regional administrative arrangements. The removal of AFSPA from the
entire region will be an inevitable step in the process. But irrespective of
the security situation, AFSPA should not have allowed such impunity to the
armed forces. Mercury rising Heatwave deaths must be treated as a
disaster that allows compensation by the state India has been in the grip of what seems like an eternity of
heatwaves. April temperatures over northwest and central India are the
highest in 122 years. During April 1 to 28, the average monthly maximum the same
over central India was 37.9֯ Celsius and the same over
central India was 37.78֯ C. These averages belie
measurements at the district and sub-divisional level where several parts of
Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, and Maharashtra have seen temperatures
inch towards the mid-40s and breach normals. There is little respite expected
in May, which s anyway the hotest month, thought the India Meteorological
Department (IMD) says that while north and west India will continue to sizzle
on expected lines, and must likely brace for more heatwaves, the rest of the
country is unlikely to see the levels of March and April. A heatwave is
declared when the maximum temperature is over 40֯
C and at least 4.5 notches above normal. A severe heatwave is declared if the
departure from normal temperature is more than 6.4֯
C, according to the IMD. The proximate causes for the searing heat are an
absence of rain-bearing Western Disturbances, or tropical storms that bring
rain from the Mediterranean over north India. Cool temperatures in the
central Pacific, or a La Nina,
that normally aid rain in India, too have failed to bolster rainfall this
year. This is an unusual occurrence. Despite five
Western Disturbances forming in April, none was strong enough to bring
significant rain and depress temperatures. The IMD has forecast a ‘normal’
monsoon or 99% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87cm and is expected to
forecast the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala later in May. On the surface,
there is no direct bearing between the intensity of heatwaves an the arrival
and performance of the monsoon. In fact, even as northern India based for
want of rain, Aril saw monthly rainfall break a four-year record with high
rainfall in several parts of southern and north-eastern India. May too is
expected to see 9% more rain over India than is usual for the month, though it
must be kept in mind that base rainfall is so low in this month that it is
unlikely to make a mark. While individual weather events cannot be linked to
greenhounse gas levels, a warming globe means increased instances of extreme rain events and extended rain-less spells. What is better known is it helps
to have disaster management plans in place that help States better deal with
heatwaves and their impact on health. The official toll due to heatwaves in
the last 50 years is put at over 17,000 people, according to research from
the IMD. The heat island effect means urbanization adds degrees to the
already searing conditions; and so, heatwave deaths must be treated as a
disaster that merits compensation. Private and public workplaces too must be
better equipped to factor heatwave risk. Third World War talk
that could be hyperbole Apart from the grave
consequences in an unlikely West versus Russia nuclear stand-off, there are
other inhibiting factors M.K. NARAYANAN Amidst signs of a further escalation in conflict levels,
vis-à-vis the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war – and accompanying new rhetoric of
an even wider conflagration in the offing – concerns about the possibility of
a Third World War have gone up by several notches. During the past few days
what is further evident is that both sides seem intent on enlarging the scale
of the conflicts, rather than trying to end it. Battle cry and
response This past week, the United States and the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO), buoyed by the perceived success of Ukraine’s
resistance to Russia’s aggression, have further raised the stakes by pledging
additional packages of lethal weapons to Ukraine (amounting to several
millions of dollars), which the West had, till now, refrained from supplying
Ukraine. Again, in what can
only be perceived as a battle cry, the U.S. Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin,
at a meeting of 43 NATO and other countries (held at the Headquarters of the
U.S. Air Forces in Europe) declared that what had transpired was a
demonstration of the resolve of nations from around the world to support
Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s aggression. Russia’s response
has been equally threatening. When asked about the prospect of a Third World
War, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is on record that the risk,
including the possibility of nuclear war, was not inconsiderable and that the
situation must not be underestimated. Mr. Lavrov added, “NATO, in essence, is
engaged in a war with Russia through its proxy, and is arming that proxy.” He
further added that “war means war”. The implicit
threat by Russia of using nuclear weapons cannot be disregarded. Mr. Lavrov
is not the only on to talk of nuclear weapons, for former Russian President,
and currently Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev
similarly warned Sweden and Finland (which are currently not members of
NATO) that if they decide to join the U.S.-led military alliance, Russia
would not hesitate to deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to meet
the threat this posed. He ominously added that in such an eventuality, there
would be ‘no more talk of a nuclear free Baltic’. Nuclear weapon use is
taboo All the signs are, hence, far from reassuring, and concerns
about a nuclear holocaust appear real. Yet, it would be premature to arrive
at the conclusion that a Third World War, accompanied by the use of nuclear
weapons, is around the corner. One fact stands out loud and clear, viz., that
since 1945, and despite occasional ‘nuclear sabre rattling’ by the nuclear
weapon powers, the use of nuclear weapons has remained taboo. Since the first
two atom bombs were dropped on Japan, the destructive potential of nuclear
weapons has only increased multifold. Nuclear weapons are also no longer the
monopoly of any one single power. A nuclear attack by any one of the major
nuclear powers – Russia, the United States or China – would bring instant
retaliation. Again, the nuclear balance today is unfavorable to the West,
for Russia and China, between them, have a combined strength of nuclear
weapons which is bigger than that of the West. More to the point; if the two
sides were to engage in a nuclear conflict, there would be no victors, and it
could only result in a nuclear Armageddon. Apart from grave
consequences in the event of a nuclear stand-off, there are other inhibiting factors that make a Third World War an unlikely prospect. One current reality
is that there are many degrees of separation as regards the Ukraine-Russia
conflict, between the views held by the West and quite a few other countries
across the world. Not all countries again are in agreement with the West
about the extent of Ukraine, and this segment includes sizeable sections of
the emerging world. Even some countries in Europe not affiliated to NATO
remain sceptical about the reasons adduced for U.S. support to Ukraine, and
hew to the view that the ulterior objective is to restore global belief and
faith in U.S. authority and power, and make ‘America great again’. There is
even less support to the hackneyed theme that Russia today represents ‘the
Empire of Evil’. A latent fear among such uncommitted countries is that
all-out support to the West, and allowing it to act as judge, jury and
executioner, could create problems for many of them in the future. Europe’s real concern Countries across Europe are also concerned about the costs
of the war, more specifically, the cost of rebuilding Ukraine after the conflict
could mean for both Europe and the world that are worth mentioning. For
instance, Ukraine and Russia are generally referred to as the ‘bread basket’
of Europe. A prolonged conflict would have serious consequences for Europe as
far as food security is concerned. Furthermore, Europe is still to recover
from adverse impacts of a prolonged novel coronavirus pandemic, and an
extended war could damage the economies there even further. As it is, the WTO
has downgraded Europe’s trade forecast to 3% from 4.7% for this year. Again,
just two companies in Ukraine produce around 50% of the global total neon
output – it is a critical gas required for the lasers used in a chip
production process known as lithography, ‘where machines carve patterns onto
tiny pieces of silicon’. Chip shortages are expected to cause production cuts
in the audio, computer and electronic industries. Given all this, a Third
World War is hardly the preferred choice of most people, more so in Europe. Signs of a Russian
restraint There is little doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
foray into Ukraine was serious blunder – a point made by many western
leaders, and quite a few others as well. Nevertheless, Russia has not since
displayed the same degree of ‘foolhardiness’ that could provoke a wider
conflagration. One instance of this that could be mentioned, and which might
have led restraint in the wake of its biggest war-time loss of a battle ship
since the Second World War (in which one sailor died and 27 are reportedly mission). That Russia demonstrated restraint even after it became known to
the world at large Ukrainian anti-ship missile speaks volumes. To much of
Europe and the West, Russia’s response seemed unexpectedly low key. Whether such
restraint would continue is a matter for conjecture, but for the present it
is indicative of Russia’s unwillingness to enlarge both the area and the
intensity of the conflict. As of now, Russia
is concentrating – or at least seems more interested – in dismembering
Ukraine, now that Ukraine’s membership of NATO has been put on the
backburner. Moscow is currently envying large segments of Ukraine's East and
South, and seems to have given up plans for the present to ‘conquer’ the
whole of Ukraine and make it a part of Russia. If Russia persists with its
current thinking, then it would denote that Russia is not interested in
getting embroiled in a Third World War. For their part, most countries of
Europe – unlike NATO and possibly the U.S. – believe that they can continue
to live with the new order of things. The problem with
this latter objective is that it conflicts with the desire of both the U.S.
and NATO to exploit the current war situation in Europe to weaken Russia
militarily and politically, and incidentally decapitate Mr. Putin politically
by undermining his authority and position. This explains the intensity with
which the U.S. has mustered its – and NATO’s – capabilities to resist Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine and inflict permanent economic and political damage on
Russia, and diminish it militarily. That would meet at least two principal
objectives that dominate U.S. thinking at present – revitalising the
U.S.-NATO partnership to make it the bulwark of European security and
restoring U.S. image in Europe as also across the world. It is ‘sober and being
softer’ The current thinking in Europe appears more in line with a
softer approach. The re-election of France President Emmanuel Macron was a
matter of relief and satisfaction for the U.S. and Europe, but the display of
strength by the Far Right is inducing a great deal of rethinking in ruling
circles in Europe and underscoring the importance of taking a sober approach
to policy issues, avoiding all or any kind of intemperate move. Yet, there
are many unknowns that will still need to be dealt with. The West, and
specially, the U.S., remains intent on enlarging NATO, and notwithstanding
the current Ukraine war, is also probably complicit in the recent
announcement by Sweden and Finland of their willingness to join NATO. Being
well aware of Mr. Putin’s mind set, it is almost as if the West is daring
Russia to react. The West and
Russia both need to be careful and take due care to negotiate the many minefields that abound. The West should be thankful that Mr. Putin has not
yet emerged as a Joseph Stalin, but at the same time they should realise that
there are no Churchills, De Gaulles and FDRs [Franklin D. Roosevelt] on their
side. Reading from the old
script, conceding election 2024 The Congress’s inertia
stems from a refusal to recognise that a lot of the old grammar of politics
has been overturned HARBANS MUKHIA If gratitude was a virtue valued by the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP), it would have much to thank the Gandhi family for even in
contrary scenarios. Let us go to the
year 1984: the BJP’s two out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha versus the
Congress’s Rajiv Gandhi and its 414 seats, which remains unbeaten. It was
hard for any political party to rise from the ashes of these dimensions. Revival of the
opponent However, the BJP did so, with great help from the woolly ‘secularism
of Rajiv Gandhi. In one fell swoop of two ‘secular’ steps, he paved the way
for the BJP’s revival: by perpetrating a monstrous amendment of the Constitution to overturn the most sensible judgment of the Supreme Court granting
maintenance to a hapless Shah Bano, hoping to win the voluble conservative
Muslim clergy to his side instead of abiding by the rising liberal voices
within the community, and two, by having the locks on the Babri Masjid opened
and permitting shilanyas of the Ram temple, thus giving space to the
assertion of loud Hindu voices, hoping to win them over too with this
concession. Both steps helped
the BJP to emerge from the shadows: the first by providing social acceptance
to its charge of minority appeasement against the Congress, and the second by
demonstrating that even a government with an unprecedented electoral mandate
can be brought to its knees by loud noise. From then on, significantly, even
as the Congress has been in power, it never had a majority of its own. More
importantly, the BJP’s divisive agenda has found steady support to enable it
to come centre stage. For
a drastic transformation And then there is the history of events that occurred from
2014 onwards. The BJP’s divisive agenda, barely hidden under the veil of ‘vikas’,
has showed the Congress the writing on the wall: things will never be the
same again. And for its survival, a drastic transformation is required – a transformation
starting at the base and going to the top, and an imagination way beyond what
it was familiar with in its long history. An imagination that counters the
BJP’s platform of ‘vikas’ at the top and widespread but localised communal
violence at the ground level. A genuine restructuring of the inner working of
the Congress is needed to give voice to its supporters at the base and right
up to the top, and a narative that goes beyond issuing statements of concern
at price rise and for some of its leaders to be paying visits to temples on
the eve of every election and a side visit to a dargah on the way. The one faint sign
of an alternate Congress agenda came up a month or two before the 2109
general election, when it coined its ‘Nyuntam Aay Yojana’, or Nyay Yojana, of
providing a regular income of 72,000 rupees a year to the bottom 20% of India’s
families in terms of the wealth, but it vanished before it could even be
heard by the potential beneficiaries, and has never been heard of again. An
inertness The challenge the Congress was expected to pose to the BJP
has dissipated owing to its sheer inertia at both the structural and the
ideological planes. The inertial emanates from the refusal to recognise that
a ot of the old grammar of politics has been overturned. Politics is no
longer a leisurely activity undertaken a month or two prior to an election
and preparing an appropriate manifesto; it is an agglomerate of constant
activity, not least keeping your cadres forever active on several fronts and,
above all, the leaders being seen leading from the front all the time and not
on occasional visits after getting back home from a secret trip abroad. Prime Minister
Narendra Modi is not the only leader who has changed the grammar; the
Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banarjee, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s
leader M.K. Stalin, the Aam Aadmi Party’s leader Arvind Kejriwal and several
others have done it too, and with great success, irrespective of the merits of
each. It is clear that
the Gandhis refuse either to look at the writing on the wall(and, therefore,
to let any significant change take place either in the mode of the party’s
functioning) or to let any alternate agenda come to the fore so long as they
remain ensconced at the top, never mind if the bottom keeps slipping away.
The suggestions that were reportedly made by political strategic Prashant Kishor to party recently contain little that the group of 23 senior Congress
leaders has not been making over the past two years and more and getting a
tongue lashing by the drum beaters around the top. The only significant new
suggestion made by Mr. Kishor appears to be strategic one – for the Congress
to contest 350 odd seats on its own and for the rest by seeking alliances
with regional parties. The leadership has
responded with its time-honoured tactic of burying all implicit criticisms –
by appointing a committee to look at them. They have lain buried for over two
years anyways. Indeed, they have implicitly lain buried ever since 2014 when
the party should have woken up to the new realities and equipped itself to
deal with them. Its’ introspective’ sessions after every defeat should easily
qualify as a term of political humor. The persistent efforts of the 23
senior party leaders to awaken the top three in the family have been ignored.
Mr. Kishor’s suggestions are a case of an alarm bell ringing out, and steps
have been announced to ignore these as well. Almost status quo While a step ordained by the party’s own constitution to
democratise its inner functioning through fair and transparent elections; to
put its mind to creating an agenda that stands apart from the BJP’s (now as
well as for the elections), and to start a sort of full-time internal movement is clearly the need of the hour, the leadership has made it clear that that
would be its last option. It has thus conceded the 2024 general election to
the BJP. It is increasingly getting hard to view the Congress and the BJP as
adversaries; they look more to be complementarity is entirely one-sided. Is there any hope that things might change? Any hope that
the Gandhi family will gracefully retire and let the party reinvent itself is
far too utopian. Any hope that they will undertake the requisite steps
themselves is not any more likely. And the rest of the Opposition parties
getting together with Congress amounts to “damned if you do, damned if you
don’t” under the current scenario. Yet, the fact remains that the BJP’s
electoral support does not go beyond 40%; 60% of the voters still remain on
the other side. One can see why
Mr. Modi and the BJP should be grateful to the Gandhis. |
