THE HINDU EDITORIAL - MAY 2, 2022

 

THE HINDU EDITORIAL NEWS – MAY 2, 2022

 

Ending AFSPA AFSPA should go entirely because of the impunity it offers armed forces It augurs well for the future that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given the first authentic indication that the operation of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) may come to an end in the whole of the north-eastern region, if ongoing efforts to normalize the situation bear fruit. Mr. Modi’s remark that a good deal of work is being done in that direction, not only in Assam but also Nagaland and Manipur, may be rooted in his keenness to demonstrate the level of progress achieved in the region under his regime; but it will bring immense relief to the citizens, nevertheless. Areas notified as ‘disturbed areas’ under AFSPA have been progressively reduced in the last few years, mainly due to the improvement in the security situation. About a month ago, the Union Home Ministry reduced such notified areas considerably in Assam, Nagaland and Manipur. There was a substantial reduction in Assam, where AFSPA was removed entirely in 23 districts and partially in one. In Nagaland, after the removal of the law from 15 police stations in seven districts, it remains in areas under 57 police stations, spread across 13 districts. Areas under 82 police stations are still notified under the Act in Manipur; even thought 15 police station areas were excluded from the notification from April 1. Mr. Modi, who spoke at a ‘peace, unity and development rally’ in Diphu in Assam last week, cited “better administration” and the “return of peace” as the reasons for the removal of AFSPA in these areas in a region that has seen insurgencies for decades.    AFSPA was revoked in Tripura in 2015 and in Meghalaya in 2018. It is not unforeseeable that other States will also be excluded from its purview at some point of time. It is convenient to link the exclusion of an area from AFSPA’s purview with reduction in violence by armed groups, improvement in the security situation and an increase in development activity, but what is important is the recognition that the law created an atmosphere of impunity and led to the commission of excesses and atrocities. It was hardly four months ago that 15 civilians were killed in Mon district in Nagaland in a botched military operation. Therefore, alongside the gradual reduction in the areas under the Act, there should be serious efforts to procure justice for victims of past excesses too. On the political side, it is indeed true that much headway has been made in moving towards a political solution to some of the multifarious disputes in the region, in the form of peace accords, ceasefire and creation of sub-regional administrative arrangements. The removal of AFSPA from the entire region will be an inevitable step in the process. But irrespective of the security situation, AFSPA should not have allowed such impunity to the armed forces.   Mercury rising Heatwave deaths must be treated as a disaster that allows compensation by the state India has been in the grip of what seems like an eternity of heatwaves. April temperatures over northwest and central India are the highest in 122 years. During April 1 to 28, the average monthly maximum the same over central India was 37.9֯ Celsius and the same over central India was 37.78֯ C. These averages belie measurements at the district and sub-divisional level where several parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, and Maharashtra have seen temperatures inch towards the mid-40s and breach normals. There is little respite expected in May, which s anyway the hotest month, thought the India Meteorological Department (IMD) says that while north and west India will continue to sizzle on expected lines, and must likely brace for more heatwaves, the rest of the country is unlikely to see the levels of March and April. A heatwave is declared when the maximum temperature is over 40֯ C and at least 4.5 notches above normal. A severe heatwave is declared if the departure from normal temperature is more than 6.4֯ C, according to the IMD. The proximate causes for the searing heat are an absence of rain-bearing Western Disturbances, or tropical storms that bring rain from the Mediterranean over north India. Cool temperatures in the central Pacific, or a La Nina, that normally aid rain in India, too have failed to bolster rainfall this year.  This is an unusual occurrence.     Despite five Western Disturbances forming in April, none was strong enough to bring significant rain and depress temperatures. The IMD has forecast a ‘normal’ monsoon or 99% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87cm and is expected to forecast the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala later in May. On the surface, there is no direct bearing between the intensity of heatwaves an the arrival and performance of the monsoon. In fact, even as northern India based for want of rain, Aril saw monthly rainfall break a four-year record with high rainfall in several parts of southern and north-eastern India. May too is expected to see 9% more rain over India than is usual for the month, though it must be kept in mind that base rainfall is so low in this month that it is unlikely to make a mark. While individual weather events cannot be linked to greenhounse gas levels, a warming globe means increased instances of extreme rain events and extended rain-less spells. What is better known is it helps to have disaster management plans in place that help States better deal with heatwaves and their impact on health. The official toll due to heatwaves in the last 50 years is put at over 17,000 people, according to research from the IMD. The heat island effect means urbanization adds degrees to the already searing conditions; and so, heatwave deaths must be treated as a disaster that merits compensation. Private and public workplaces too must be better equipped to factor heatwave risk.   Third World War talk that could be hyperbole Apart from the grave consequences in an unlikely West versus Russia nuclear stand-off, there are other inhibiting factors M.K. NARAYANAN Amidst signs of a further escalation in conflict levels, vis-à-vis the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war – and accompanying new rhetoric of an even wider conflagration in the offing – concerns about the possibility of a Third World War have gone up by several notches. During the past few days what is further evident is that both sides seem intent on enlarging the scale of the conflicts, rather than trying to end it. Battle cry and response This past week, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), buoyed by the perceived success of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s aggression, have further raised the stakes by pledging additional packages of lethal weapons to Ukraine (amounting to several millions of dollars), which the West had, till now, refrained from supplying Ukraine.    Again, in what can only be perceived as a battle cry, the U.S. Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, at a meeting of 43 NATO and other countries (held at the Headquarters of the U.S. Air Forces in Europe) declared that what had transpired was a demonstration of the resolve of nations from around the world to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s aggression.    Russia’s response has been equally threatening. When asked about the prospect of a Third World War, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is on record that the risk, including the possibility of nuclear war, was not inconsiderable and that the situation must not be underestimated. Mr. Lavrov added, “NATO, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through its proxy, and is arming that proxy.” He further added that “war means war”.    The implicit threat by Russia of using nuclear weapons cannot be disregarded. Mr. Lavrov is not the only on to talk of nuclear weapons, for former Russian President, and currently Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev similarly warned Sweden and Finland (which are currently not members of NATO) that if they decide to join the U.S.-led military alliance, Russia would not hesitate to deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to meet the threat this posed. He ominously added that in such an eventuality, there would be ‘no more talk of a nuclear free Baltic’. Nuclear weapon use is taboo All the signs are, hence, far from reassuring, and concerns about a nuclear holocaust appear real. Yet, it would be premature to arrive at the conclusion that a Third World War, accompanied by the use of nuclear weapons, is around the corner. One fact stands out loud and clear, viz., that since 1945, and despite occasional ‘nuclear sabre rattling’ by the nuclear weapon powers, the use of nuclear weapons has remained taboo.     Since the first two atom bombs were dropped on Japan, the destructive potential of nuclear weapons has only increased multifold. Nuclear weapons are also no longer the monopoly of any one single power. A nuclear attack by any one of the major nuclear powers – Russia, the United States or China – would bring instant retaliation. Again, the nuclear balance today is unfavorable to the West, for Russia and China, between them, have a combined strength of nuclear weapons which is bigger than that of the West. More to the point; if the two sides were to engage in a nuclear conflict, there would be no victors, and it could only result in a nuclear Armageddon.     Apart from grave consequences in the event of a nuclear stand-off, there are other inhibiting factors that make a Third World War an unlikely prospect. One current reality is that there are many degrees of separation as regards the Ukraine-Russia conflict, between the views held by the West and quite a few other countries across the world. Not all countries again are in agreement with the West about the extent of Ukraine, and this segment includes sizeable sections of the emerging world. Even some countries in Europe not affiliated to NATO remain sceptical about the reasons adduced for U.S. support to Ukraine, and hew to the view that the ulterior objective is to restore global belief and faith in U.S. authority and power, and make ‘America great again’. There is even less support to the hackneyed theme that Russia today represents ‘the Empire of Evil’. A latent fear among such uncommitted countries is that all-out support to the West, and allowing it to act as judge, jury and executioner, could create problems for many of them in the future. Europe’s real concern Countries across Europe are also concerned about the costs of the war, more specifically, the cost of rebuilding Ukraine after the conflict could mean for both Europe and the world that are worth mentioning. For instance, Ukraine and Russia are generally referred to as the ‘bread basket’ of Europe. A prolonged conflict would have serious consequences for Europe as far as food security is concerned. Furthermore, Europe is still to recover from adverse impacts of a prolonged novel coronavirus pandemic, and an extended war could damage the economies there even further. As it is, the WTO has downgraded Europe’s trade forecast to 3% from 4.7% for this year. Again, just two companies in Ukraine produce around 50% of the global total neon output – it is a critical gas required for the lasers used in a chip production process known as lithography, ‘where machines carve patterns onto tiny pieces of silicon’. Chip shortages are expected to cause production cuts in the audio, computer and electronic industries. Given all this, a Third World War is hardly the preferred choice of most people, more so in Europe. Signs of a Russian restraint There is little doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foray into Ukraine was serious blunder – a point made by many western leaders, and quite a few others as well. Nevertheless, Russia has not since displayed the same degree of ‘foolhardiness’ that could provoke a wider conflagration. One instance of this that could be mentioned, and which might have led restraint in the wake of its biggest war-time loss of a battle ship since the Second World War (in which one sailor died and 27 are reportedly mission). That Russia demonstrated restraint even after it became known to the world at large Ukrainian anti-ship missile speaks volumes. To much of Europe and the West, Russia’s response seemed unexpectedly low key. Whether such restraint would continue is a matter for conjecture, but for the present it is indicative of Russia’s unwillingness to enlarge both the area and the intensity of the conflict.    As of now, Russia is concentrating – or at least seems more interested – in dismembering Ukraine, now that Ukraine’s membership of NATO has been put on the backburner. Moscow is currently envying large segments of Ukraine's East and South, and seems to have given up plans for the present to ‘conquer’ the whole of Ukraine and make it a part of Russia. If Russia persists with its current thinking, then it would denote that Russia is not interested in getting embroiled in a Third World War. For their part, most countries of Europe – unlike NATO and possibly the U.S. – believe that they can continue to live with the new order of things.    The problem with this latter objective is that it conflicts with the desire of both the U.S. and NATO to exploit the current war situation in Europe to weaken Russia militarily and politically, and incidentally decapitate Mr. Putin politically by undermining his authority and position. This explains the intensity with which the U.S. has mustered its – and NATO’s – capabilities to resist Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflict permanent economic and political damage on Russia, and diminish it militarily. That would meet at least two principal objectives that dominate U.S. thinking at present – revitalising the U.S.-NATO partnership to make it the bulwark of European security and restoring U.S. image in Europe as also across the world. It is ‘sober and being softer’ The current thinking in Europe appears more in line with a softer approach. The re-election of France President Emmanuel Macron was a matter of relief and satisfaction for the U.S. and Europe, but the display of strength by the Far Right is inducing a great deal of rethinking in ruling circles in Europe and underscoring the importance of taking a sober approach to policy issues, avoiding all or any kind of intemperate move. Yet, there are many unknowns that will still need to be dealt with. The West, and specially, the U.S., remains intent on enlarging NATO, and notwithstanding the current Ukraine war, is also probably complicit in the recent announcement by Sweden and Finland of their willingness to join NATO. Being well aware of Mr. Putin’s mind set, it is almost as if the West is daring Russia to react.    The West and Russia both need to be careful and take due care to negotiate the many minefields that abound. The West should be thankful that Mr. Putin has not yet emerged as a Joseph Stalin, but at the same time they should realise that there are no Churchills, De Gaulles and FDRs [Franklin D. Roosevelt] on their side.   Reading from the old script, conceding election 2024 The Congress’s inertia stems from a refusal to recognise that a lot of the old grammar of politics has been overturned HARBANS MUKHIA                                                                If gratitude was a virtue valued by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it would have much to thank the Gandhi family for even in contrary scenarios.   Let us go to the year 1984: the BJP’s two out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha versus the Congress’s Rajiv Gandhi and its 414 seats, which remains unbeaten. It was hard for any political party to rise from the ashes of these dimensions. Revival of the opponent However, the BJP did so, with great help from the woolly ‘secularism of Rajiv Gandhi. In one fell swoop of two ‘secular’ steps, he paved the way for the BJP’s revival: by perpetrating a monstrous amendment of the Constitution to overturn the most sensible judgment of the Supreme Court granting maintenance to a hapless Shah Bano, hoping to win the voluble conservative Muslim clergy to his side instead of abiding by the rising liberal voices within the community, and two, by having the locks on the Babri Masjid opened and permitting shilanyas of the Ram temple, thus giving space to the assertion of loud Hindu voices, hoping to win them over too with this concession.    Both steps helped the BJP to emerge from the shadows: the first by providing social acceptance to its charge of minority appeasement against the Congress, and the second by demonstrating that even a government with an unprecedented electoral mandate can be brought to its knees by loud noise. From then on, significantly, even as the Congress has been in power, it never had a majority of its own. More importantly, the BJP’s divisive agenda has found steady support to enable it to come centre stage. For a drastic transformation          And then there is the history of events that occurred from 2014 onwards. The BJP’s divisive agenda, barely hidden under the veil of ‘vikas’, has showed the Congress the writing on the wall: things will never be the same again. And for its survival, a drastic transformation is required – a transformation starting at the base and going to the top, and an imagination way beyond what it was familiar with in its long history. An imagination that counters the BJP’s platform of ‘vikas’ at the top and widespread but localised communal violence at the ground level. A genuine restructuring of the inner working of the Congress is needed to give voice to its supporters at the base and right up to the top, and a narative that goes beyond issuing statements of concern at price rise and for some of its leaders to be paying visits to temples on the eve of every election and a side visit to a dargah on the way.    The one faint sign of an alternate Congress agenda came up a month or two before the 2109 general election, when it coined its ‘Nyuntam Aay Yojana’, or Nyay Yojana, of providing a regular income of 72,000 rupees a year to the bottom 20% of India’s families in terms of the wealth, but it vanished before it could even be heard by the potential beneficiaries, and has never been heard of again. An inertness         The challenge the Congress was expected to pose to the BJP has dissipated owing to its sheer inertia at both the structural and the ideological planes. The inertial emanates from the refusal to recognise that a ot of the old grammar of politics has been overturned. Politics is no longer a leisurely activity undertaken a month or two prior to an election and preparing an appropriate manifesto; it is an agglomerate of constant activity, not least keeping your cadres forever active on several fronts and, above all, the leaders being seen leading from the front all the time and not on occasional visits after getting back home from a secret trip abroad.    Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not the only leader who has changed the grammar; the Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banarjee, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s leader M.K. Stalin, the Aam Aadmi Party’s leader Arvind Kejriwal and several others have done it too, and with great success, irrespective of the merits of each.    It is clear that the Gandhis refuse either to look at the writing on the wall(and, therefore, to let any significant change take place either in the mode of the party’s functioning) or to let any alternate agenda come to the fore so long as they remain ensconced at the top, never mind if the bottom keeps slipping away. The suggestions that were reportedly made by political strategic Prashant   Kishor to party recently contain little that the group of 23 senior Congress leaders has not been making over the past two years and more and getting a tongue lashing by the drum beaters around the top. The only significant new suggestion made by Mr. Kishor appears to be strategic one – for the Congress to contest 350 odd seats on its own and for the rest by seeking alliances with regional parties.    The leadership has responded with its time-honoured tactic of burying all implicit criticisms – by appointing a committee to look at them. They have lain buried for over two years anyways. Indeed, they have implicitly lain buried ever since 2014 when the party should have woken up to the new realities and equipped itself to deal with them. Its’ introspective’ sessions after every defeat should easily qualify as a term of political humor. The persistent efforts of the 23 senior party leaders to awaken the top three in the family have been ignored. Mr. Kishor’s suggestions are a case of an alarm bell ringing out, and steps have been announced to ignore these as well. Almost status quo While a step ordained by the party’s own constitution to democratise its inner functioning through fair and transparent elections; to put its mind to creating an agenda that stands apart from the BJP’s (now as well as for the elections), and to start a sort of full-time internal movement is clearly the need of the hour, the leadership has made it clear that that would be its last option. It has thus conceded the 2024 general election to the BJP. It is increasingly getting hard to view the Congress and the BJP as adversaries; they look more to be complementarity is entirely one-sided. Is there any hope that things might change? Any hope that the Gandhi family will gracefully retire and let the party reinvent itself is far too utopian. Any hope that they will undertake the requisite steps themselves is not any more likely. And the rest of the Opposition parties getting together with Congress amounts to “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” under the current scenario. Yet, the fact remains that the BJP’s electoral support does not go beyond 40%; 60% of the voters still remain on the other side.    One can see why Mr. Modi and the BJP should be grateful to the Gandhis.