THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH, 29, 2022

 

THE HINDU EDITORIAL- MARCH 29, 2022

 

Beleaguered captain Imran khan will find survival as PM difficult now that he is not the Army’s favourite Prime Minister Imran Khan showed on Sunday that the passionate base of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) remained intact when tens of thousands of people turned up at Islamabad’s Parade Ground to attend his rally. But his long speech also indicated that the cricketer-turned-politician has finally come to terms with the political challenges he is facing. Mr. Khan, who is facing a no-confidence vote in Parliament, used his carefully worded speech to defend the performance of his government, reiterate the PTI’s “Islamic welfarist” ideology, and set the tone for the future political battles. Drawing parallels between himself Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the former Prime Minister who was overthrown in 1977 by General Zia-ul-Haq and later executed, Mr. Khan alleged that there was an international conspiracy against his government. Whether his allegations are true or not, his coalition government is in trouble, surviving on a razor-thin majority in Parliament. At least a dozen lawmakers from his party have revolted against him. Some coalition members have hinted that there could be an early election. Mr. Khan’s invoking of Bhutto’s fate is also seen as veiled criticism of the military establishment. He had been a close ally of the Generals from before the 2018 elections. But the establishment appears to have gone cold on him.     While Mr. Khan has fiercely defended the track record of his government all is not well at the ground level. There is widespread resentment against the government’s handling of the economy, which the Opposition has tried to capture by mobilizing support for the no-trust motion. The crisis is so deep that even government officials are reportedly not paid their salaries on time. On Sunday, Mr. Khan said he would continue his crusade against “white collar crimes”, referring to corruption charges against Opposition leaders. He calls his opponents rodents and has brought dozens of corruption cases against them in the past four years, but none has resulted in a conviction. On the other side, his hard line approach has galvanized the Opposition, including the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan People’s Party, which joined hands with Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam to form the Pakistan Democratic Movement, an umbrella organization whose sole goal is to bring the PTI government down. While crises piled up one after another, Mr. Khan’s approval rating started slipping. According to a Gallup poll in January, Nawaz Sharif, currently living in exile, was 19 points ahead of Mr. Khan in popularity. Whether Mr. Khan survives the no-trust vote or not, his run as a clean anti-corruption crusader with a mission to build ‘Naya Pakistan’ has come to a halt. His political survival would depend on how he is going to adapt himself and the PTI to the new political environment where he faces a united Opposition without the direct assistance of the military establishment.     The power of the man The relevance of movies dealing with toxic masculinity was in evidence at the Oscars Everything from the Power of The Dog winning only one of its 12 nominations to the silent applause and standing ovation for Troy Kotsur’s Best Supporting Actor win in CODA was swept off the table in the face of Will Smith’s altercation with Chris Rock. Smith, who went on to win the Best Actor Award for his role as Richard Williams in King Richard, slapped Rock when the actor and comedian made a ‘joke’ about Smith’s wife, Jada Pinkett Smith’s hair loss. The neo-western, The Power of the Dog, based on Thomas Savage’s eponymous novel, apart from other things, deals with toxic masculinity, which is what the Smith-Rock confrontation was at one level. In other Oscar news, the heart-warming coming-of-age story, CODA directed by Sian Heder won all three awards it was nominated for. Denis Villeneuve’s exquisite adaptation of Frank Herbert’s science fiction classic, Dune, won the maximum awards. Of the 10 nominations, Dune: Part One (as it is titled onscreen), won six. The golden man went to Hans Zimmer’s score, sound, editing, visual effects, and cinematography and production design.     Drive My Car from Japan, co-written and directed by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, had four nominations, which it won ahead of Paolo Sorrentino’s intensely personal The Hand of God from Italy and Bhutan’s Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom. Smith’s fellow nominees for the best actor included Benedict Cumberbatch as the closeted, conflicted rancher in The Power of the Dog, Javier Bardem’s eye-popping turn as Desi Arnaz in Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos, Andrew Garfield as Jonathan Larson in Lin-Manuel Miranda’s biographical musical Tick, Tick…. Boom! And Denzel Washington as Macbeth in Joel Coen’s black-and-white takes on The Tragedy of Macbeth. Jessica Chastain’s win in the best actress category for The Eyes of Tammy Faye faced some stiff competition from Olivia Colman in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter and Kristen Stewart as Lady Diana in Spencer. The supporting actress category was also closely fought with Arana DeBose from West Side Story winning against Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Judi Dench (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard). Paul Thomas Anderson’s delightfully comforting Licorice Pizza was yet another coming-of-age film with a strong presence at the nomination stage, but did not win. While Jane Campion’s best director win for The Power of the Dog follows Chloe Zhao’s win last year for Nomadland, making her the second woman to win in as many years, the Smith-Rock spat proves that there are miles to go before show business could come of age. Bad jokes, like bad cinema, are best ignored and not put down with violence.

The rise of AAP and central question It is still too early to answer whether the party can threaten the BJP-dominant system or contribute to upholding it ASIM ALI Under a Bharatiya Janata Party-dominant system, most political parties have struggled to hold on to, let alone expand their political space. There are only two exceptions. The first is regional parties in the east and the south whose appeals to linguistic identity or sub-nationalism have found a renewed resonance among the electorate. The second exception is the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a centrist populist party which has matured under the Narendra Modi-era into a party of emerging national prominence.      AAP has done this by skillfully negotiating the opportunities and threats inherent in the BJP-dominant system. It has geared itself to occupy the political space that has opened with the steady discrediting of the Congress party under the Modi era. In the recent Punjab Assembly elections – where it swept to power, winning 92 of 117 seats – it rode the anti-establishment mood that was partly prepared with the unrest over the farm laws bulldozed through by the central government. At the same time, it has sought to neutralize the ideological threat of the BJP by operating within the boundaries set by the BJP’s larger ideological framework. Strategy after 2019 This second strategy was crystallized after its drubbing in the Lok Sabha election of 2019, when it effected a decisive shift in its route to expansion. Before that election, AAP attempted to expand through high-profile attempts at occupying the oppositional space by attacking the central government and the Prime Minister. In the three years since, it has pivoted away from the national arena, focusing instead on localized issues in the pursuit of a gradual State by State strategy.     The focus of this article is to answer one central question: would the rise of AAP threaten the BJP-dominant system or would it contribute to upholding it? The answer cannot quite be straightforward as it depends on the particular strategic positioning of AAP with respect to the BJP-dominant system: a spectrum ranging from acquiescence to disapproval to confrontation. Being a dynamic variable, this strategic positioning would vary with time and context. The only constant is that AAP would seek to take the positioning it calculates to be most advantageous to its rise.      The BJP-dominant system comprises three elements: the ideological dominance of Hindu nationalism; the unparalleled popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the unchecked power of the central government machinery.      After 2019, AAP has consistently shied away from challenging the BJP on each of these elements. In line with the party’s State-wise strategy, AAP has preferred to take on State-level BJP governments by decrying their corruption and inefficiencies, and presenting its own ‘Delhi model of governance’ as an alternative. Going by the results of the Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa Assembly elections (which were held along with the Punjab and Manipur polls), this plan has not worked out well.      It must be borne in mind that AAP’s spectacular triumph in Punjab is, in many respects, an anomaly. It does not in itself prove or disprove the strategic worth of AAP’s positioning in the BJP-dominant system. Punjab was peculiar in it being a State where all the traditional parties were discredited – a dream scenario for AAP. It was also a State where the BJP was not a major player and the central government was highly unpopular. These conditions are unlikely to be replicated in the other States AAP has set its eyes on; therefore, Punjab does not provide a reliable map for future expansion. The next stage for AAP AAP’s next phase of expansion would run through States with a largely bipolar competition between the Congress and the BJP – States such as Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, and possibly Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.      To succeed in this terrain, AAP has more to learn from its failures in Goa and Uttarakhand (States with a similar political dynamic) than from its successes in Punjab. And it is these failures, precisely, which has informed the latest tweaking in the AAP’s political strategy, manifested in AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s speech in the Delhi Assembly.      AAP has now seemed to modify its strategic positioning in the BJP-dominant system from acquiescence to disapproval. Breaking several self-imposed shibboleths, Mr. Kejriwal underlined a shift in his party’s approach by attacking Mr. Modi personally (with dramatic references to ’56-inch chest’ and even ‘Hitler’); implicitly criticizing the Hindu nationalist propaganda of the BJP represented by the film, The Kashmir Files; and condemning the Centre’s control of independent institutions as reflected in the deferral of the Delhi municipal elections.      Many observers have put down Mr. Kejriwal’s new avatar to AAP’s renewed ambition to fast-track itself into the primary national opposition to take on the BJP, on the back of its electoral victory in Punjab. This would, however, be a misreading of both the rationale and the nature of AAP’s strategic shift.      First, let us come to the rationale. As mentioned earlier, this shift has less to do with the success in Punjab than to the failures in Uttarakhand and Goa. Both these States were marked by high levels of anti-incumbency against the State governments, and AAP expected its alternative model of governance to catapult the party into becoming a major player. In Uttarakhand, specifically, AAP hoped that its centre-right platform (positioning itself between the Congress and the BJP) would help it attract disillusioned voters of the BJP. Yet, in both the States, AAP stopped well short of a double-digit vote-share, failing even to open its account in Uttarakhand. On pro-incumbency One big take away from this round of State elections is that the trend of de-linked State and national elections has been reversed. This trend was reflected in a poor run for the BJP in State elections between 2018 and 2021. However, these elections mark a sharp break, where the popularity of the central government and Mr. Modi buoyed the BJP in all the four States it won. In Uttarakhand and Goa, the pro-incumbency for the central government more than neutralized the high levels of anti-incumbency against the State governments. The result was the BJP romped back home in both the States while largely holding on to its vote-share from the previous elections.      For AAP, this presented two lessons. One, the party’s State-specific strategic against the BJP cannot afford to ignore the larger national appeal of the BJP. In other words, AAP cannot maintain an agnostic stance toward Hindu nationalism and Mr. Modi if BJP voters continue to vote for them over the governance model presented by AAP. And two, AAP’s cautious and limited opposition to the BJP also hurts it from the other end as anti-BJP voters flock toward the more aggressive posture of the Congress. Since both pro-incumbency (Mr. Modi, Hindutva) and anti-incumbency (unemployment, inflation) in State elections increasingly have national provenance, AAP’s localized strategies seem to be missing a larger national element. An outlook Does this mean that AAP is about to resurrect its pre-2019 phase of frontal confrontation with the Modi government, or become part of a broader oppositional alliance against the BJP? The answers are probably in the negative. The party is unlikely to drop its carefully planned State-by-State strategy in favour of another premature dart to occupy the national oppositional space. As a fleet-footed party adept at learning from its mistakes, one would not expect AAP to forget the lessons of the last two general elections in a hurry.      The actions of AAP over the last few years have demonstrated that it has accepted the durability of the BJP-dominant system. The results of the recent State elections would have only reinforced that notion. The long-term strategy of AAP is to replace the Congress as the alternative pole to the BJP. Towards that end, the strategic positioning of AAP in the BJP-dominant system might sway between acquiescence and disapproval. The phase of confrontation with the BJP-dominant system might only come after this long period of, to paraphrase Deng Xiaoping, hiding its strengths and biding its time.       A subregional grouping that must get back on course BIMSTEC is in need of a framework to tackle the specific challenges confronting the Bay of Bengal region VENU RAJAMONY As world attention remains focused on the war in Ukraine, leaders of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) will attend a summit meeting of the regional organization. The meet, which is to be held in virtual mode, will be hosted by Sri Lanka, the current BIMSTEC chair.     Founded in 1997, the seven-member BIMSTEC, which includes the littoral states of India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar (Thailand is a member too) and the land-locked states of Nepal and Bhutan, has identified 14 pillars for special focus. These are trade and investment, transport and communication, energy tourism, technology, fisheries, agriculture, public health, poverty alleviation, counter terrorism and transnational crime, environment and disaster management, people-to-people contact, cultural cooperation and climate change. While each sector is important, the segmented approach has resulted in omnibus end summit communiqués full of aspirations rather than action. The upcoming summit is an opportunity for BIMSTEC leaders to go beyond generalized statements and take concrete steps to address critical challenges confronting the region.      A Bay of Bengal Maritime Dialogue (BOBMD) organized recently by the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and the Pathfinder Foundation brought together government officials, maritime experts, and representatives of prominent think tanks from Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia. Participants called for stepped up efforts in areas such as environmental protection; scientific research; curtailing illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, as well as the development of standard operating procedures that could govern interaction between fishing vessels of one country with maritime law enforcement agencies of another. Rich marine ecosystem Presentations made at the BOBMD highlighted the fact that the Bay of Bengal is home to a large network of beautiful yet fragile estuaries, mangrove forests of around 15,792 square kilometers, coral reefs of around 8,471 sq.km, sea grass meadows and mass nesting sites of sea turtles. The annual loss of mangrove areas is estimated at 0.4% to 1.7% and coral reefs at 0.7%. It is predicted that the sea level will increase 0.5 metres in the next 50 years. Moreover, there have been 13 cyclonic storms in the last five years. The Bay is an important source of natural resources for a coastal population of approximately 185 million people. The fishermen population alone is estimated to be around 3.7 million, with an annual fish catch of around six million tones, constituting 7% of the World’s catch and valued at around U.S.$4 billion. Around 4,15,000 fishing boats operate in the Bay and it is estimated that 33% of fish stocks are fished unsustainably (source: presentation in February 2022 by E. Vivekanandan, senior consultant, ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research institute). According Organization of the United Nation (FAO), the Bay of Bengal is one of IUU fishing hotspots in the Asia-Pacific.      The pressing challenges that confront the Bay of Bengal include the emergence of a dead zone with zero oxygen where no fish survive; leaching of plastic from rivers as well as the Indian Ocean; destruction of natural protection against floods such as mangroves; sea erosion; growing population pressure and industrial growth in the coastal areas and consequently, huge quantities of untreated waste flow. Security threats such as terrorism, piracy and tensions between countries caused by the arrests of fishermen who cross maritime boundaries are additional problems. It also needs to be kept in mind that the problem of fishermen crossing into the territorial waters of neighboring countries affect India and Sri Lanka and Bangladesh and Myanmar (also Pakistan on the west coast). Need for regional interaction The blue economy potential of the Bay of Bengal is huge. There are many opportunities to develop maritime trade, shipping, aquaculture and tourism. However, tapping these opportunities requires coordinated and concerted action by governments, scientists and other experts. The BIMSTEC Summit must create a new regional mechanism for coordinated activities on Maritime issues of a transboundary nature. This mechanism must initiate urgent measures to strengthen fisheries management, promote sustainable fishing methods, establish protected areas and develop frameworks to prevent and manage pollution, especially industrial and agricultural waste as well as oil spills. There is also a need for greater scientific research on the impact of climate change in general and on fisheries in particular.     At present, there is limited cooperation between countries of the region in marine research. Most BIMSTEC countries have premier institutions and excellent scientists but their interaction with the West in far more than within the region. The use of modern technology and improved fishing practices can go a long way in restoring the health of the Bay. This should be a priority area Marine environmental protection must become a priority area for cooperation in the Bay of Bengal. Enforcement must be strengthened and information shared on best practices. Regional protocols need to be developed and guidelines and standards on pollution control established. Decision-making must be based on science and reliable data, information and tools.      There is a need for home-grown solutions based on capabilities of local institutions and for mutual learning through regional success stories. There is a need to create regional frameworks for data collection. Participatory approaches must be evolved for near-real-time stock assessment and the creation of a regional open fisheries data alliance. The Bay of Bengal Programmes (BOBP), an inter-governmental organization based in Chennai, is doing good work to promote sustainable fishing.       A Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem (BOBLME) project is funded by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and others. The BIMSTEC summit must express full support for both BOBP and BOBLME. The summit must mandate officials to come up with measures to curtail unsustainable as well as IUU fishing. These could include setting up an international vessel tracking system and making it mandatory for vessels to be equipped with automatic identification system (AIS) trackers; establishing a regional fishing vessel registry system and publishing vessel license lists to help identify illegal vessels; increasing monitoring, control and surveillance in IUU fishing hotspot; establishing regional guidelines on how to deter and prevent IUU practices; improving the implementation of joint regional patrols, and regional fishing moratoriums and outreach programmes targeted at fisher-folk. Laws and policies in littoral states must be harmonized and humanitarian treatment of fishermen ensured during any encounter with maritime law enforcement agencies.       The challenges that confront the Bay of Bengal region brook no more delay. BIMSTEC must arise, awake and act before it is too late. The summit must set in process regular meetings of officials, supported by scientists and experts, to tackle illegal and unsustainable fishing as well as prevent the further environmental degradation of the Bay of Bengal.